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Breakdown of covered interest parity: mystery or myth?

In: The price, real and financial effects of exchange rates

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  • Alfred Wong

    (Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

  • Jiayue Zhang

    (Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

Abstract

The emergence and persistence of basis spreads in cross-currency basis swaps (CCBS) since the global financial crisis have become a mystery in international finance, as they violate the long-standing principle of covered interest parity (CIP). We argue that the phenomenon is no mystery but merely a reflection of the different risks involved between money market and CCBS transactions in the post-crisis era. Empirical results based on seven major currency pairs support our hypothesis that swap dealers behave as if they seek to align the risks of the transactions in pricing CCBS, which causes CIP to break down. We also find that the basis spreads are well arbitraged among the currency pairs, which suggests they are fairly priced. Hence, it is a myth that CCBS basis spreads or CIP deviations are evidence of the market not functioning properly.

Suggested Citation

  • Alfred Wong & Jiayue Zhang, 2018. "Breakdown of covered interest parity: mystery or myth?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The price, real and financial effects of exchange rates, volume 96, pages 57-78, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:bisbpc:96-08
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    Cited by:

    1. Chernov, Mikhail & Augustin, Patrick & Schmid, Lukas & Song, Dongho, 2020. "The term structure of CIP violations," CEPR Discussion Papers 14774, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Ibhagui, Oyakhilome, 2021. "Stock market and deviations from covered interest parity," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    3. Patrick Augustin & Mikhail Chernov & Lukas Schmid & Dongho Song, 2024. "The Term Structure of Covered Interest Rate Parity Violations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(3), pages 2077-2114, June.
    4. Aldasoro, Iñaki & Ehlers, Torsten & Eren, Egemen, 2022. "Global banks, dollar funding, and regulation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    5. Oyakhilome Ibhagui, 2021. "Inflation differential as a driver of cross-currency basis swap spreads," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(6), pages 510-536, April.
    6. Heidorn, Thomas & Mamadalizoda, Nekruz, 2019. "Investigating the cross currency basis in EURUSD and EURGBP," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 227, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.

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