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Ex-post-Analyse der Wirkungen des COVID-19-Maßnahmenpaketes auf die Unternehmensliquidität

Author

Listed:
  • Serguei Kaniovski
  • Atanas Pekanov

    (WIFO)

  • Thomas Url

    (WIFO)

Abstract

Die Ex-post-Analyse der Wirkung von staatlichen Hilfsmaßnahmen im Rahmen der COVID-19-Gesetze ermöglicht Schlussfolgerungen über die Wirksamkeit der Hilfsmaßnahmen zur Überbrückung möglicher Liquiditätsengpässe aufgrund fallender Umsätze. Eine erste Einschätzung der Kreditvergabe zeigt, dass die Kreditwirtschaft in Österreich zur Krisenstabilisierung beigetragen hat und dabei keine zusätzlichen Risiken für die Wirtschaft entstanden sind. Die regulatorischen Kennzahlen des Bankensektors haben sich im Laufe des Jahres nicht verschlechtert, erst im 2. Halbjahr setzte eine Verschärfung der Kreditrichtlinien ein. Weiters wurden ein teilsynthetischer Unternehmensdatensatz und ein Mikrosimulationsmodell zur Einschätzung der Liquiditäts- und Insolvenzrisiken für die nichtlandwirtschaftliche Privatwirtschaft in Österreich (ohne Finanzdienstleistungen) entwickelt. Der Vergleich einzelner Szenarien zeigt, dass die Hilfsmaßnahmen erfolgreich Liquiditätsengpässe verkleinerten, den Beschäftigungsabbau deutlich verringerten und auch die Liquiditätslücke soweit verkleinerten, dass in Verbindung mit den staatlichen Haftungen eine Pleitewelle verhindert werden konnte.

Suggested Citation

  • Serguei Kaniovski & Atanas Pekanov & Thomas Url, 2021. "Ex-post-Analyse der Wirkungen des COVID-19-Maßnahmenpaketes auf die Unternehmensliquidität," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 67189, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:wstudy:67189
    Note: With English abstract.
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Duprey, Thibaut & Klaus, Benjamin & Peltonen, Tuomas, 2017. "Dating systemic financial stress episodes in the EU countries," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 30-56.
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    3. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Veronika Penciakova & Nick Sander, 2020. "SME Failures Under Large Liquidity Shocks: An Application to the COVID-19 Crisis," NBER Working Papers 27877, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Veronika Penciakova & Nick Sander, 2020. "COVID-19 and SME Failures," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2020-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
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    7. Thomas Url, 2020. "Gesamtwirtschaftliche Auswirkungen der COVID-19-Pandemie in Österreich und die Möglichkeiten der Stabilisierungspolitik," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 93(4), pages 267-273, April.
    8. Elena Carletti & Tommaso Oliviero & Marco Pagano & Loriana Pelizzon & Marti G Subrahmanyam, 0. "The COVID-19 Shock and Equity Shortfall: Firm-Level Evidence from Italy," Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(3), pages 534-568.
    9. Mr. Christian H Ebeke & Nemanja Jovanovic & Ms. Laura Valderrama & Jing Zhou, 2021. "Corporate Liquidity and Solvency in Europe during COVID-19: The Role of Policies," IMF Working Papers 2021/056, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Harasztosi, Péter & Maurin, Laurent & Pál, Rozália & Revoltella, Debora & van der Wielen, Wouter, 2022. "Firm-level policy support during the crisis: So far, so good?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 30-48.
    2. Thomas Url, 2022. "Hohe Liquiditätszufuhr im Kreditwesen 2021 nur teilweise durch lebhafte Kreditnachfrage absorbiert," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 95(4), pages 263-274, April.
    3. Josef Baumgartner & Serguei Kaniovski & Marian Fink & Hans Pitlik & Silvia Rocha-Akis, 2021. "Strong Private Consumption Spurs Economic Growth. Medium-term Forecast of the Austrian Economy 2022 to 2026 Including the Tax Reform 2022 2024," WIFO Reports on Austria, WIFO, issue 13, November.
    4. Thomas Url, 2021. "Privatversicherungswirtschaft bewies in der COVID-19-Krise Leistungsfähigkeit," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 94(9), pages 637-649, September.
    5. Wifo, 2022. "WIFO-Monatsberichte, Heft 4/2022," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 95(4), April.
    6. Josef Baumgartner & Serguei Kaniovski & Marian Fink & Margit Schratzenstaller, 2021. "Steuerreform 2022/2024 – Gesamtwirtschaftliche Wirkungen," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 94(12), pages 883-898, December.
    7. Josef Baumgartner & Serguei Kaniovski & Marian Fink & Hans Pitlik & Silvia Rocha-Akis, 2021. "Starker privater Konsum treibt das Wirtschaftswachstum. Mittelfristige Prognose 2022 bis 2026 unter Berücksichtigung der Steuerreform 2022/2024," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 94(10), pages 711-736, October.

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