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Developing Resource Use Scenarios for Europe. WWWforEurope Working Paper No. 25

Author

Listed:
  • Marina Fischer-Kowalski
  • Dominik Wiedenhofer
  • Willi Haas
  • Irene Pallua
  • Daniel Hausknost

    (Alpen-Adria-Universität Klagenfurt)

Abstract

We suggest four scenarios for European resource use up to the year 2050, aligning with the global resource use scenarios developed by UNEP's International Resource Panel (2011). A "trend scenario" prolonging Europe's resource use into the future proves to be very close to the "freezing" scenario proposed by UNEP for high income industrial countries, and leads to an average per-capita resource use in Europe on the same level as in the early 2000's. A "best practice scenario" generalises the past success of some European countries in downsizing their resource use to all European countries up to 2050. The fourth scenario, the "radical transformation scenario", follows UNEP's "moderate contraction and convergence scenario" in halving the per-capita annual resource use of European countries, leading to what is commonly called "absolute decoupling". As a conclusion we show that a successful scenario exercise requires an intimate collaboration between macroeconomic modellers and scientists contributing from the environmental and socio-ecological angle. There will be place for such collaboration in the further course of the WWWforEurope project.

Suggested Citation

  • Marina Fischer-Kowalski & Dominik Wiedenhofer & Willi Haas & Irene Pallua & Daniel Hausknost, 2013. "Developing Resource Use Scenarios for Europe. WWWforEurope Working Paper No. 25," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 46886, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:wfo:wstudy:46886
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Karl Aiginger, 2016. "New Dynamics for Europe: Reaping the Benefits of Socio-ecological Transition – Part I: Synthesis. WWWforEurope Deliverable No. 11," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 58791.
    2. Karl Aiginger & Kurt Kratena & Margit Schratzenstaller & Teresa Weiss, 2014. "Moving Towards a New Growth Model. WWWforEurope Deliverable No. 3," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 47247.
    3. Marina Fischer-Kowalski & Dominik Wiedenhofer, 2014. "An Optimal Policy Mix for Resource Use. WWWforEurope Policy Brief No. 5," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 47505.
    4. Dominik Wiedenhofer & Marina Fischer-Kowalski, 2015. "Achieving Absolute Decoupling? Comparing Biophysical Scenarios and Macro-economic Modelling Results. WWWforEurope Working Paper No. 86," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 57895.
    5. Kurt Kratena & Mark Sommer, 2014. "Model Simulations of Resource Use Scenarios for Europe. WWWforEurope Deliverable No. 5," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 47503.
    6. Mikuláš Luptáčik & Eduard Nežinský & Martin Lábaj, 2015. "Drivers of the Change in Social Welfare. WWWforEurope Working Paper No. 105," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 58348, April.

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