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Energy Scenarios 2030. A Basis for the Projection of Austrian Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Author

Listed:
  • Kurt Kratena

    (WIFO)

  • Ina Meyer

Abstract

In this project energy scenarios up to the year 2030 representing economic trends and impacts of climate and energy policies are developed. These provide a basis for the reporting duties "monitoring mechanism" of the Federal Environmental Agency regarding the UNFCCC. For this purpose the dynamic econometric Input-Output (DEIO) model of the WIFO is used. It represents energy demands of 59 NACE 2-digit sectors, and the household sector in relations to energy prices, technical and socio-demographic variables such as stock of dwellings and energy efficiency explaining economic developments. The DEIO model is linked to three partial bottom-up models of other research groups, which describe the heating system, electricity demand and power generation and the transport sector. Scenario results are presented according to the template of the aggregated energy balance of Statistics Austria with regard to 1. the reference, with-measures (WM) scenario, 2. a sensitivity analysis to the reference scenario, and 3. a climate and energy policy scenario (with-additional-measures, WAM) with 4. a sensitivity analysis to the WAM scenario. The WM scenario is based on recent WIFO economic forecasts and focuses on the impacts of the economic crisis on energy demand. The WAM scenario is based on the Austrian Energy Strategy, reflecting the targets of the final energy consumption (1,100 PJ p.a.), the share of renewable energy according to the definition of the EU climate and energy package (34 percent) and the reduction of greenhouse gases by 16 percent within the EU "effort sharing".

Suggested Citation

  • Kurt Kratena & Ina Meyer, 2011. "Energy Scenarios 2030. A Basis for the Projection of Austrian Greenhouse Gas Emissions," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 41909, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:wstudy:41909
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kurt Kratena & Ina Meyer & Mark Sommer, 2013. "Energy Scenarios 2030. Model Projections of Energy Demand as a Basis to Quantify Austria's Greenhouse Gas Emissions," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 46702, April.
    2. Karl Steininger & Christoph Schmid & Alexandra Tobin, 2012. "Regional and environmental impacts of expanding the heavy duty vehicle charge to the secondary road network in Austria," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 39(2), pages 261-278, May.

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