IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/b/wbk/wbpubs/30614.html
   My bibliography  Save this book

Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2018

Author

Listed:
  • World Bank Group

Abstract

Commodity prices in the third quarter of 2018 were buffeted by geopolitical and macroeconomic events. Energy prices gained 3 percent in 2018 Q3 (q/q), partly in response to the impending re-imposition of sanctions on Iran by the United States along with continuing declines in production in Venezuela. As a result, crude oil prices are expected to average $72 per barrel (bbl) in 2018 (up from $53/bbl in 2017) and $74/bbl in 2019. This represents a sizable upward revision from the April 2018 forecast. Moreover, risks to the oil price forecast are to the upside in the short-term, given the recent decline in spare capacity. In contrast, metal and agricultural prices declined 10 and 7 percent, respectively, in the third quarter of 2018 amid robust supplies and trade disputes. Metal prices are expected to stabilize in 2019 whereas agricultural prices are expected to gain almost 2 percent. This edition also examines how energy and metal commodity markets have evolved over the past 20 years. It shows that China has been the main driver of commodity demand growth, particularly for coal and metals, but that its demand is likely to slow while other emerging market economies are unlikely to emulate China.

Suggested Citation

  • World Bank Group, 2019. "Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2018," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 30614.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbpubs:30614
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/30614/CMO-October-2018.pdf?sequence=6
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Shon Ferguson & David Ubilava, 2022. "Global commodity market disruption and the fallout," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 66(4), pages 737-752, October.
    2. Belleh Fontem & Megan Price, 2021. "Joint client selection and contract design for a risk-averse commodity broker in a two-echelon supply chain," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 307(1), pages 111-138, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbpubs:30614. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tal Ayalon (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.