IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/b/wbk/wbpubs/16360.html
   My bibliography  Save this book

Reshaping Tomorrow : Is South Asia Ready for the Big Leap?

Author

Listed:
  • Ejaz Ghani

Abstract

What will South Asia look like in 2025? The optimistic outlook is that India, which accounts for 80 per cent of the regional economic output, is headed towards double-digit growth rates. South Asia too will grow rapidly, primarily due to India. The pessimistic outlook is that, given huge transformational challenges facing the region, growth should not be taken for granted. Which of these two outlooks is likely to prevail? This is what this book is all about. It is about the future, and not the past, and how to make smart choices about the future. There is strong empirical justification in favor of the optimistic outlook. Growth will be propelled higher by young demographics, improved governance, rising middle class, and the next wave of globalization. There is democracy, for the first time since independence, in all countries in the region. Young demographics will result in nearly 20 million more people joining the labour force, every year, for the next two decades. Almost a billion people will join the ranks of the middle class. India's middle class is well-educated, enterprising, innovative, and more demanding of better services, products, and governance. The region will benefit from the new wave of globalization in services, and increased international migration and human mobility. Indeed the drivers of growth seem to have already moved from the rich world to the poor world. The room for catch-up is huge, given the big gap in average income between South Asia and the rich countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Ejaz Ghani, 2011. "Reshaping Tomorrow : Is South Asia Ready for the Big Leap?," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 16360.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbpubs:16360
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/16360/65420.pdf?sequence=1
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kaushik Basu & Annemie Maertens, 2007. "The pattern and causes of economic growth in India," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 23(2), pages 143-167, Summer.
    2. Ghani, Ejaz (ed.), 2010. "The Service Revolution in South Asia," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198065111.
    3. Aizenman, Joshua & Pinto, Brian & Radziwill, Artur, 2004. "Sources for Financing Domestic Capital – is Foreign Saving a Viable Option for Developing Countries?," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt31n8m3bt, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    4. Ghani, Ejaz & Kharas, Homi, 2010. "The Service Revolution," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 14, pages 1-5, May.
    5. Kochhar, Kalpana & Kumar, Utsav & Rajan, Raghuram & Subramanian, Arvind & Tokatlidis, Ioannis, 2006. "India's pattern of development: What happened, what follows?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(5), pages 981-1019, July.
    6. Panagariya, Arvind, 2011. "India: The Emerging Giant," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199751563.
    7. Eswar S. Prasad & Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2007. "Foreign Capital and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(1), pages 153-230.
    8. Athukorala, Prema-chandra & Sen, Kunal, 2004. "The Determinants of Private Saving in India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 491-503, March.
    9. Aizenman, Joshua & Pinto, Brian & Radziwill, Artur, 2007. "Sources for financing domestic capital - Is foreign saving a viable option for developing countries?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 682-702, September.
    10. Eswar S. Prasad & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2008. "A Pragmatic Approach to Capital Account Liberalization," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(3), pages 149-172, Summer.
    11. Bosworth, Barry & Collins, Susan M. & Virmani, Arvind, 2007. "Sources of Growth in the Indian Economy," India Policy Forum, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 3(1), pages 1-69.
    12. Ben S. Bernanke & Julio J. Rotemberg, 2000. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1999, Volume 14," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bern00-1.
    13. Ayhan Kose, M. & Prasad, Eswar S. & Taylor, Ashley D., 2011. "Thresholds in the process of international financial integration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 147-179, February.
    14. Robert E. Baldwin, 2004. "Openness and Growth: What's the Empirical Relationship?," NBER Chapters, in: Challenges to Globalization: Analyzing the Economics, pages 499-521, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Ghani, Ejaz & Anand, Rahul, 2009. "How will changes in globalization impact growth in south Asia ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5079, The World Bank.
    16. Cavallo, Eduardo A. & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2008. "Does openness to trade make countries more vulnerable to sudden stops, or less? Using gravity to establish causality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1430-1452, December.
    17. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Financial Stability, the Trilemma, and International Reserves," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 57-94, April.
    18. Prasad, Eswar S., 2009. "Some New Perspectives on India’s Approach to Capital Account Liberalization," India Policy Forum, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 5(1), pages 125-178.
    19. David Hauner, 2006. "A Fiscal Price Tag for International Reserves," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 169-195, August.
    20. James Ang, 2009. "Household Saving Behaviour in an Extended Life Cycle Model: A Comparative Study of China and India," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(8), pages 1344-1359.
    21. Kose, M. Ayhan & Prasad, Eswar S. & Terrones, Marco E., 2009. "Does financial globalization promote risk sharing?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 258-270, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Prakash Kumar Shrestha Ph.D., 2013. "A Revisit of the East Asian Development Experiences in the Context of South Asia," NRB Working Paper 18/2013, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department.
    2. repec:wbk:wbpubs:12096 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Handley, Antoinette, 2014. "Varieties of capitalists? The middle class, private sector and economic outcomes in Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series 101, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    4. Eichengreen, Barry, 2013. "Currency war or international policy coordination?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 425-433.
    5. Meeta Keswani Mehra & Swati Saini, 2020. "Implications of Quality of Schooling on Economic Growth and Convergence – A System Dynamics Perspective," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(1), pages 97-126, January.
    6. Ghani, Ejaz & Kerr, William R. & O’Connell, Stephen D, 2011. "Who Creates Jobs?," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 70, pages 1-7, November.
    7. Antoinette Handley, 2014. "Varieties of Capitalists?: The Middle Class, Private Sector and Economic Outcomes in Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2014-101, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    8. Kathuria, Vinish & Rajesh Raj, S.N. & Sen, Kunal, 2013. "The effects of economic reforms on manufacturing dualism: Evidence from India," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 1240-1262.
    9. Ghani, Ejaz & O'Connell, Stephen D. & Sharma, Gunjan, 2013. "Friend or foe or family ? a tale of formal and informal plants in India," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6588, The World Bank.
    10. World Bank, 2012. "Global Economic Prospects, June 2012 [Perspectivas económicas mundiales: gestionar el crecimiento en un mundo volátil - Resumen ejecutivo (Vol. 1)]," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 12106.
    11. repec:nrb:wpaper:nrbwp182013 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Prakash Kumar Shrestha, 2013. "Economic development in South and East Asia: empirical examination of East Asian Development Model," Asia-Pacific Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 20(2), pages 1-28, December.
    13. Sinha, Anushree & Kanbur, Ravi, 2012. "Informality: Concepts, Facts And Models," Working Papers 128801, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eswar S. Prasad, 2011. "Rebalancing Growth in Asia," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(1), pages 27-66, April.
    2. Prasad, Eswar S., 2009. "Some New Perspectives on India’s Approach to Capital Account Liberalization," India Policy Forum, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 5(1), pages 125-178.
    3. Prasad, Eswar, 2009. "India's Approach to Capital Account Liberalization," IZA Discussion Papers 3927, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Joshua Aizenman & Brian Pinto, 2013. "Managing Financial Integration and Capital Mobility—Policy Lessons from the Past Two Decades," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 636-653, September.
    5. Ayhan Kose, M. & Prasad, Eswar S. & Taylor, Ashley D., 2011. "Thresholds in the process of international financial integration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 147-179, February.
    6. Kose, M. Ayhan & Prasad, Eswar & Rogoff, Kenneth & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2010. "Financial Globalization and Economic Policies," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4283-4359, Elsevier.
    7. Ayhan Kose, M. & Prasad, Eswar S. & Terrones, Marco E., 2009. "Does openness to international financial flows raise productivity growth?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 554-580, June.
    8. Eswar S. Prasad & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2008. "A Pragmatic Approach to Capital Account Liberalization," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(3), pages 149-172, Summer.
    9. Maurice Obstfeld, 2009. "International Finance and Growth in Developing Countries: What Have We Learned?," NBER Working Papers 14691, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Eswar S. Prasad, 2009. "India’s Approach to Capital Account Liberalization," Working Papers id:2043, eSocialSciences.
    11. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    12. Andrew van Hulten & Michael Webber, 2010. "Do developing countries need 'good' institutions and policies and deep financial markets to benefit from capital account liberalization?," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 283-319, March.
    13. Olivier Jeanne, 2007. "International Reserves in Emerging Market Countries: Too Much of a Good Thing?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(1), pages 1-80.
    14. Aizenman, Joshua & Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2011. "Surfing the waves of globalization: Asia and financial globalization in the context of the trilemma," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 290-320, September.
    15. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Eswar Prasad, 2012. "Global Business Cycles: Convergence Or Decoupling?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(2), pages 511-538, May.
    16. Ashok Kotwal & Bharat Ramaswami & Wilima Wadhwa, 2011. "Economic Liberalization and Indian Economic Growth: What's the Evidence?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1152-1199, December.
    17. Abdullahi Ahmed & Andrew Hulten, 2014. "Financial Globalization in Botswana and Nigeria: A Critique of the Thresholds Paradigm," The Review of Black Political Economy, Springer;National Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 177-203, June.
    18. Eswar S. Prasad, 2011. "Role reversal in global finance," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 339-390.
    19. Peter E. Robertson, 2012. "Deciphering the Hindu growth epic," Indian Growth and Development Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 5(1), pages 51-69, April.
    20. Raghuram Rajan, 2008. "Global Imbalances or why are the Poor Financing the Rich?," De Economist, Springer, vol. 156(1), pages 3-24, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbpubs:16360. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tal Ayalon (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.