IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/b/uts/finphd/2-2015.html
   My bibliography  Save this book

Repeated Dividend Increases: A Collection of Four Essays

Author

Abstract

This thesis investigates firms with patterns of repeated cash dividend increases to answer two research questions. First, are firms rewarded for this particular type of dividend policy, and second, is there any evidence to support the hypothesis that the stock market learns to anticipate a dividend increase based on past history? Dividends are a particularly good corporate action to study because firms tend to increase dividends over time, and at regular intervals. This repetition leads to patterns of regularly-occurring dividend increases, which in some cases can extend for many decades. The analysis is presented in a collection of four essays. The first essay documents the prevalence of firms that sustain a pattern of consecutive annual dividend increases. These firms attract a stock market premium, providing evidence to support the belief that a steady dividend policy is rewarded. The next two essays further explore firms with a habit of regularly increasing the dividend to determine if the market eventually learns to expect future dividend increases. The second essay studies U.S. firms and Australian firms are investigated in the third essay. For both countries the stock market reaction to each consecutively-numbered increase within a pattern is different across each increase, with a smaller stock price reaction the more often the increase is repeated. The fourth, and final, essay examines firms that fail to continue an established dividend-increase pattern. A firm may be expected to maintain the same dividend-increase schedule, and the expectation should be higher the longer the length of the established pattern. When the pattern is interrupted and the expected increase does not eventuate, the stock market reaction is expected to be more pronounced the longer the length of the established pattern. The results presented in the last three essays provide evidence consistent with the market learning hypothesis. Combined, the four essays suggest that the stock market evaluates the information contained in a dividend announcement in conjunction with the length and pattern of past dividend payments.

Suggested Citation

  • Scott Walker, 2015. "Repeated Dividend Increases: A Collection of Four Essays," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 2-2015, January-A.
    • Handle: RePEc:uts:finphd:2-2015
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://opus.lib.uts.edu.au/bitstream/10453/34456/2/02whole.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yuan Xie, 2011. "The Market Effects of Breaking a String of Meeting or Beating Analysts’ Expectations: Downward Revision of Future Cash Flows or Increase in Cost of Equity Capital?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(1-2), pages 95-118, January.
    2. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:5:p:2093-2116 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Barth, ME & Elliott, JA & Finn, MW, 1999. "Market rewards associated with patterns of increasing earnings," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 387-413.
    4. Ikenberry, David L. & Rankine, Graeme & Stice, Earl K., 1996. "What Do Stock Splits Really Signal?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(3), pages 357-375, September.
    5. Amihud, Yakov & Li, Kefei, 2006. "The Declining Information Content of Dividend Announcements and the Effects of Institutional Holdings," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(3), pages 637-660, September.
    6. Pettit, R Richardson, 1972. "Dividend Announcements, Security Performance, and Capital Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 27(5), pages 993-1007, December.
    7. Harris, Lawrence E & Gurel, Eitan, 1986. "Price and Volume Effects Associated with Changes in the S&P 500 List: New Evidence for the Existence of Price Pressures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(4), pages 815-829, September.
    8. Gustavo Grullon & Roni Michaely & Shlomo Benartzi & Richard H. Thaler, 2005. "Dividend Changes Do Not Signal Changes in Future Profitability," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(5), pages 1659-1682, September.
    9. Andreas Charitou & Neophytos Lambertides & Giorgos Theodoulou, 2010. "The Effect of Past Earnings and Dividend Patterns on the Information Content of Dividends When Earnings Are Reduced," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 46(2), pages 153-187, June.
    10. Barber, Brad M. & Lyon, John D., 1997. "Detecting long-run abnormal stock returns: The empirical power and specification of test statistics," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 341-372, March.
    11. Warwick Anderson, 2009. "Alternative event study methodology for detecting dividend signals in the context of joint dividend and earnings announcements," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 49(2), pages 247-265, June.
    12. Michaely, Roni & Thaler, Richard H & Womack, Kent L, 1995. "Price Reactions to Dividend Initiations and Omissions: Overreaction or Drift?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 573-608, June.
    13. Bartov, Eli & Givoly, Dan & Hayn, Carla, 2002. "The rewards to meeting or beating earnings expectations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 173-204, June.
    14. Jensen, Gerald R. & Lundstrum, Leonard L. & Miller, Robert E., 2010. "What do dividend reductions signal?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 736-747, December.
    15. Ron Kasznik & Maureen F. McNichols, 2002. "Does Meeting Earnings Expectations Matter? Evidence from Analyst Forecast Revisions and Share Prices," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(3), pages 727-759, June.
    16. Gustavo Grullon & Roni Michaely & Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 2002. "Are Dividend Changes a Sign of Firm Maturity?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(3), pages 387-424, July.
    17. Kane, Alex & Lee, Young Ki & Marcus, Alan, 1984. "Earnings and Dividend Announcements: Is There a Corroboration Effect?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1091-1099, September.
    18. Benartzi, Shlomo & Michaely, Roni & Thaler, Richard H, 1997. "Do Changes in Dividends Signal the Future or the Past?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 1007-1034, July.
    19. Brown, Stephen J. & Warner, Jerold B., 1985. "Using daily stock returns : The case of event studies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-31, March.
    20. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:3:p:879-904 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Brown, Philip & How, Janice C.Y. & Verhoeven, Peter, 2008. "The accuracy of analysts' dividend forecasts around the world," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 411-435, September.
    22. Robert M. Conroy & Kenneth M. Eades & Robert S. Harris, 2000. "A Test of the Relative Pricing Effects of Dividends and Earnings: Evidence from Simultaneous Announcements in Japan," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1199-1227, June.
    23. Dielman, Terry E. & Oppenheimer, Henry R., 1984. "An Examination of Investor Behavior during Periods of Large Dividend Changes," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 197-216, June.
    24. Denis, David J. & Denis, Diane K. & Sarin, Atulya, 1994. "The Information Content of Dividend Changes: Cash Flow Signaling, Overinvestment, and Dividend Clienteles," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(4), pages 567-587, December.
    25. DeAngelo, Harry & DeAngelo, Linda, 1990. "Dividend Policy and Financial Distress: An Empirical Investigation of Troubled NYSE Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(5), pages 1415-1431, December.
    26. Balachandran, Balasingham & Krishnamurti, Chandrasekhar & Theobald, Michael & Vidanapathirana, Berty, 2012. "Dividend reductions, the timing of dividend payments and information content," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 1232-1247.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Scott Walker, 2015. "Repeated Dividend Increases: A Collection of Four Essays," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 17, July-Dece.
    2. Jensen, Gerald R. & Lundstrum, Leonard L. & Miller, Robert E., 2010. "What do dividend reductions signal?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 736-747, December.
    3. Bilinski, Pawel & Lyssimachou, Danielle, 2018. "Dividend guidance to manage analyst dividend expectations," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 53-68.
    4. Eva Liljeblom & Sabur Mollah & Patrik Rotter, 2015. "Do dividends signal future earnings in the Nordic stock markets?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 493-511, April.
    5. Lee, Bong Soo & Mauck, Nathan, 2016. "Dividend initiations, increases and idiosyncratic volatility," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 47-60.
    6. Blau, Benjamin M. & Fuller, Kathleen P., 2008. "Flexibility and dividends," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 133-152, April.
    7. Kumar, Satish, 2017. "New evidence on stock market reaction to dividend announcements in India," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 327-337.
    8. Alderson, Michael J. & Betker, Brian L. & Halford, Joseph T., 2021. "Fictitious dividend cuts in the CRSP data," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    9. Szomko Natalia, 2015. "Investor Reaction to Information on Final Dividend Payouts on the Warsaw Stock Exchange – an Event Study Analysis," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 45(1), pages 127-146, March.
    10. James, Hui & Benson, Bradley W. & Wu, Chen (Ken), 2017. "Does CEO ownership affect payout policy? Evidence from using CEO scaled wealth-performance sensitivity," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 328-345.
    11. Abdullah AlGhazali & Khamis Hamed Al-Yahyaee & Richard Fairchild & Yilmaz Guney, 2024. "What do dividend changes reveal? Theory and evidence from a unique environment," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 499-552, February.
    12. Dempsey, Stephen J. & Sheng, Hainan, 2023. "Dividend change announcements, ROE, and the cost of equity capital," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    13. Daniel, Naveen D. & Denis, David J. & Naveen, Lalitha, 2008. "Do firms manage earnings to meet dividend thresholds," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 2-26, March.
    14. Wei Hao & Udomsak Wongchoti & Martin Young & Jianguo Chen, 2021. "R2 and the corporate signaling effect," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 1353-1381, December.
    15. Mao Liang Li & Chin Man Chui & Chang Qing Li, 2014. "Dividend, liquidity and firm valuation: evidence from China AB share markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(9), pages 587-603, May.
    16. Frankfurter, George M. & Wood, Bob Jr., 2002. "Dividend policy theories and their empirical tests," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 111-138.
    17. Andreas Charitou & Neophytos Lambertides & Giorgos Theodoulou, 2010. "The Effect of Past Earnings and Dividend Patterns on the Information Content of Dividends When Earnings Are Reduced," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 46(2), pages 153-187, June.
    18. Xin Che & Andre P. Liebenberg & Ivonne A. Liebenberg & Brandon C. L. Morris, 2018. "The effect of growth opportunities on the market reaction to dividend cuts: evidence from the 2008 financial crisis," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 1-17, July.
    19. Asem, Ebenezer, 2022. "Are dividend changes exploited in the equity market?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 125-133.
    20. Jais, Mohamad & Abdul Karim, Bakri & Funaoka, Kenta & Abidin, Azlan Zainol, 2009. "Dividend Announcements and Stock Market Reaction," MPRA Paper 19779, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uts:finphd:2-2015. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Duncan Ford (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sfutsau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.