IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/quaeco/v85y2022icp125-133.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Are dividend changes exploited in the equity market?

Author

Listed:
  • Asem, Ebenezer

Abstract

This paper investigates whether the equity market anticipates dividend changes that have large value effects in the days leading to the announcements. In particular, I partition dividend changes into those with large and small value effects based on dividend and firm characteristics and study the abnormal returns preceding the changes by the two groups. T-tests are used to test the difference in mean abnormal returns preceding dividend changes by the two groups, and regression techniques are used to test whether this difference is equal to the corresponding difference for firms that maintain dividends. The results show that the abnormal returns preceding dividend changes that have large value effects are not different from those preceding dividend changes that have minimal value effects or, if there is a difference, it is statistically similar to the corresponding difference preceding unchanged dividends. Thus, it does not appear that the equity market exploits the price effect of dividend changes that have large value effects in the days leading to the events. This contrasts evidence that shows that the equity market anticipates corporate events that have large price effects in the days proximal to the events.

Suggested Citation

  • Asem, Ebenezer, 2022. "Are dividend changes exploited in the equity market?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 125-133.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:85:y:2022:i:c:p:125-133
    DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2020.11.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062976920301605
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.qref.2020.11.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2001. "Disappearing Dividends: Changing Firm Characteristics Or Lower Propensity To Pay?," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 14(1), pages 67-79, March.
    2. Henk Berkman & Michael D. McKenzie, 2012. "Earnings Announcements: Good News for Institutional Investors and Short Sellers," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 47(1), pages 91-113, February.
    3. Blau, Benjamin M. & Fuller, Kathleen P. & Van Ness, Robert A., 2011. "Short selling around dividend announcements and ex-dividend days," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 628-639, June.
    4. Ron Kaniel & Gideon Saar & Sheridan Titman, 2008. "Individual Investor Trading and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(1), pages 273-310, February.
    5. Noe, Christopher F., 1999. "Voluntary disclosures and insider transactions," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 305-326, July.
    6. Turan G. Bali & Armen Hovakimian, 2009. "Volatility Spreads and Expected Stock Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(11), pages 1797-1812, November.
    7. Mitchell A. Petersen, 2009. "Estimating Standard Errors in Finance Panel Data Sets: Comparing Approaches," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(1), pages 435-480, January.
    8. Julie Cotter & Irem Tuna & Peter D. Wysocki, 2006. "Expectations Management and Beatable Targets: How Do Analysts React to Explicit Earnings Guidance?," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(3), pages 593-624, September.
    9. Andres, Christian & Hofbaur, Ulrich, 2017. "Do what you did four quarters ago: Trends and implications of quarterly dividends," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 139-158.
    10. Pound, John & Zeckhauser, Richard J, 1990. "Clearly Heard on the Street: The Effect of Takeover Rumors on Stock Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(3), pages 291-308, July.
    11. Ham, Charles G. & Kaplan, Zachary R. & Leary, Mark T., 2020. "Do dividends convey information about future earnings?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 547-570.
    12. Amihud, Yakov & Li, Kefei, 2006. "The Declining Information Content of Dividend Announcements and the Effects of Institutional Holdings," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(3), pages 637-660, September.
    13. Pettit, R Richardson, 1972. "Dividend Announcements, Security Performance, and Capital Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 27(5), pages 993-1007, December.
    14. Newman, P & Sansing, R, 1993. "Disclosure Policies With Multiple Users," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 92-112.
    15. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2008. "All That Glitters: The Effect of Attention and News on the Buying Behavior of Individual and Institutional Investors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(2), pages 785-818, April.
    16. Skinner, Douglas J., 1997. "Earnings disclosures and stockholder lawsuits," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 249-282, November.
    17. Gustavo Grullon & Roni Michaely & Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 2002. "Are Dividend Changes a Sign of Firm Maturity?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(3), pages 387-424, July.
    18. Thomas J. Chemmanur & Gang Hu & Jiekun Huang, 2010. "The Role of Institutional Investors in Initial Public Offerings," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(12), pages 4496-4540, December.
    19. Kane, Alex & Lee, Young Ki & Marcus, Alan, 1984. "Earnings and Dividend Announcements: Is There a Corroboration Effect?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1091-1099, September.
    20. Keown, Arthur J & Pinkerton, John M, 1981. "Merger Announcements and Insider Trading Activity: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(4), pages 855-869, September.
    21. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    22. Ball, R & Brown, P, 1968. "Empirical Evaluation Of Accounting Income Numbers," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(2), pages 159-178.
    23. Jun Zhang, 2018. "Informed Options Trading Prior to Dividend Change Announcements," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 47(1), pages 81-103, March.
    24. Amin, Abu S. & Dutta, Shantanu & Saadi, Samir & Vora, Premal P., 2015. "Institutional shareholding and information content of dividend surprises: Re-examining the dynamics in dividend-reappearance era," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 152-170.
    25. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    26. Denis, David J. & Denis, Diane K. & Sarin, Atulya, 1994. "The Information Content of Dividend Changes: Cash Flow Signaling, Overinvestment, and Dividend Clienteles," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(4), pages 567-587, December.
    27. Jarrell, Gregg A & Poulsen, Annette B, 1989. "Stock Trading before the Announcement of Tender Offers: Insider Trading or Market Anticipation?," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(2), pages 225-248, Fall.
    28. Ray Ball & Lakshmanan Shivakumar, 2008. "How Much New Information Is There in Earnings?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(5), pages 975-1016, December.
    29. Yoon, Pyung Sig & Starks, Laura T, 1995. "Signaling, Investment Opportunities, and Dividend Announcements," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(4), pages 995-1018.
    30. Lie, Erik, 2000. "Excess Funds and Agency Problems: An Empirical Study of Incremental Cash Disbursements," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(1), pages 219-247.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ebenezer Asem & Shamsul Alam, 2021. "The abnormal return associated with consecutive dividend increases," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(3), pages 222-238, February.
    2. Blau, Benjamin M. & Fuller, Kathleen P., 2008. "Flexibility and dividends," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 133-152, April.
    3. Fuller, Kathleen P. & Goldstein, Michael A., 2011. "Do dividends matter more in declining markets?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 457-473, June.
    4. Alderson, Michael J. & Betker, Brian L. & Halford, Joseph T., 2021. "Fictitious dividend cuts in the CRSP data," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    5. Lee, Bong Soo & Mauck, Nathan, 2016. "Dividend initiations, increases and idiosyncratic volatility," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 47-60.
    6. Abdullah AlGhazali & Khamis Hamed Al-Yahyaee & Richard Fairchild & Yilmaz Guney, 2024. "What do dividend changes reveal? Theory and evidence from a unique environment," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 499-552, February.
    7. Wei Hao & Udomsak Wongchoti & Martin Young & Jianguo Chen, 2021. "R2 and the corporate signaling effect," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 1353-1381, December.
    8. Mao Liang Li & Chin Man Chui & Chang Qing Li, 2014. "Dividend, liquidity and firm valuation: evidence from China AB share markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(9), pages 587-603, May.
    9. Cheng Few Lee & Manak C. Gupta & Hong-Yi Chen & Alice C. Lee, 2020. "Optimal Payout Ratio Under Uncertainty and the Flexibility Hypothesis: Theory and Empirical Evidence," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Cheng Few Lee & John C Lee (ed.), HANDBOOK OF FINANCIAL ECONOMETRICS, MATHEMATICS, STATISTICS, AND MACHINE LEARNING, chapter 96, pages 3367-3412, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. KOCHIYAMA, Takuma & 河内山, 拓磨 & SEKI, Koreyoshi, 2017. "Discretion in the Deferred Tax Valuation Allowance and Its Impact on Firms' Dividend Payouts," Working Paper Series 209, Management Innovation Research Center, School of Business Administration, Hitotsubashi University Business School.
    11. Szomko Natalia, 2015. "Investor Reaction to Information on Final Dividend Payouts on the Warsaw Stock Exchange – an Event Study Analysis," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 45(1), pages 127-146, March.
    12. James, Hui & Benson, Bradley W. & Wu, Chen (Ken), 2017. "Does CEO ownership affect payout policy? Evidence from using CEO scaled wealth-performance sensitivity," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 328-345.
    13. Krieger, Kevin & Lee, Bong-Soo & Mauck, Nathan, 2013. "Do senior citizens prefer dividends? Local clienteles vs. firm characteristics," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 150-165.
    14. Henry, Darren & Nguyen, Lily & Pham, Viet Hung, 2017. "Institutional trading before dividend reduction announcements," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 40-55.
    15. Warwick Anderson & Wen Kang, 2018. "The Relative Announcement Effects of Ordinary Dividends, Special Dividends and Share Buybacks in New Zealand," Working Papers in Economics 18/02, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    16. Kumar, Satish, 2017. "New evidence on stock market reaction to dividend announcements in India," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 327-337.
    17. Liu, Mengxi (Maggie) & Chan, Kam Fong & Faff, Robert, 2022. "What can we learn from firm-level jump-induced tail risk around earnings announcements?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    18. Asem, Ebenezer & Alam, Shamsul, 2015. "Market movements and the excess cash theory," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 140-149.
    19. Dempsey, Stephen J. & Sheng, Hainan, 2023. "Dividend change announcements, ROE, and the cost of equity capital," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    20. Bai-Sian Chen & Hong-Yi Chen & Hsiao-Yin Chen & Fang-Chi Lin, 2022. "Corporate growth and strategic payout policy," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 641-669, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dividend changes; Anticipating corporate events; Abnormal market activity; Event studies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General
    • G35 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Payout Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:85:y:2022:i:c:p:125-133. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620167 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.