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Modeling Aggregate Behavior and Fluctuations in Economics

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  • Aoki,Masanao

Abstract

This book has two components: stochastic dynamics and stochastic random combinatorial analysis. The first discusses evolving patterns of interactions of a large but finite number of agents of several types. Changes of agent types or their choices or decisions over time are formulated as jump Markov processes with suitably specified transition rates: optimisations by agents make these rates generally endogenous. Probabilistic equilibrium selection rules are also discussed, together with the distributions of relative sizes of the bases of attraction. As the number of agents approaches infinity, we recover deterministic macroeconomic relations of more conventional economic models. The second component analyses how agents form clusters of various sizes. This has applications for discussing sizes or shares of markets by various agents which involve some combinatorial analysis patterned after the population genetics literature. These are shown to be relevant to distributions of returns to assets, volatility of returns, and power laws.

Suggested Citation

  • Aoki,Masanao, 2004. "Modeling Aggregate Behavior and Fluctuations in Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521606196.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:cbooks:9780521606196
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    Cited by:

    1. ARATA Yoshiyuki, 2015. "Endogenous Business Cycles Caused by Nonconvex Costs and Interactions," Discussion papers 15085, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    2. Chiarella Carl & Di Guilmi Corrado, 2015. "The limit distribution of evolving strategies in financial markets," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 137-159, April.
    3. Chiarella, Carl & Di Guilmi, Corrado, 2011. "The financial instability hypothesis: A stochastic microfoundation framework," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1151-1171, August.
    4. Charles D. Brummitt & Kenan Huremović & Paolo Pin & Matthew H. Bonds & Fernando Vega-Redondo, 2017. "Contagious disruptions and complexity traps in economic development," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 1(9), pages 665-672, September.
    5. Fabio Tramontana, 2010. "Economics as a compartmental system: a simple macroeconomic example," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 57(4), pages 347-360, December.
    6. Roman, Mihai Daniel, 2008. "Entreprises behavior in cooperative and punishment‘s repeated negotiations," MPRA Paper 37527, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Jan 2009.
    7. Jalali-Naini , Ahmad. R. & Hemati , Maryam, 2012. "The Effect of Monetary Shocks on Disaggregated Prices in a Data Rich Environment: a Bayesian FAVAR Approach," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 6(4), pages 27-60, July.
    8. Y. Ikeda & W. Souma & H. Aoyama & Y. Fujiwara & H. Iyetomi, 2010. "Analysis of labor productivity using large-scale data of firm’s financial statements," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 76(4), pages 491-499, August.
    9. Enrico Scalas & Tijana Radivojević & Ubaldo Garibaldi, 2015. "Wealth distribution and the Lorenz curve: a finitary approach," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 10(1), pages 79-89, April.
    10. Mena, Ramsés H. & Walker, Stephen G., 2012. "An EPPF from independent sequences of geometric random variables," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(6), pages 1059-1066.
    11. Tang, Yinan & Chen, Ping, 2014. "Time varying moments, regime switch, and crisis warning: The birth–death process with changing transition probability," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 404(C), pages 56-64.
    12. Scalas, Enrico & Gallegati, Mauro & Guerci, Eric & Mas, David & Tedeschi, Alessandra, 2006. "Growth and allocation of resources in economics: The agent-based approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 370(1), pages 86-90.
    13. LI, XI HAO & Gallegati, Mauro, 2015. "Stock-Flow Dynamic Projection," MPRA Paper 62047, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Liliana Leone & Gaetano Giunta & Marco Giunta & Domenico Marino & Andrea Giunta, 2023. "Urban Regeneration through Integrated Strategies to Tackle Inequalities and Ecological Transition: An Experimental Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-18, July.
    15. Sergey Sosnovskiy, 2015. "On financial applications of the two-parameter Poisson-Dirichlet distribution," Papers 1501.01954, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2015.
    16. Alfarano, Simone & Lux, Thomas & Wagner, Friedrich, 2010. "Excess Volatility and Herding in an Artificial Financial Market: Analytical Approach and Estimation," MPRA Paper 24719, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Roman, Mihai Daniel, 2010. "A game theoretic approach of war with financial influences," MPRA Paper 38389, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Tang, Yinan & Chen, Ping, 2015. "Transition probability, dynamic regimes, and the critical point of financial crisis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 430(C), pages 11-20.

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