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Transition probability, dynamic regimes, and the critical point of financial crisis

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  • Tang, Yinan
  • Chen, Ping

Abstract

An empirical and theoretical analysis of financial crises is conducted based on statistical mechanics in non-equilibrium physics. The transition probability provides a new tool for diagnosing a changing market. Both calm and turbulent markets can be described by the birth–death process for price movements driven by identical agents. The transition probability in a time window can be estimated from stock market indexes. Positive and negative feedback trading behaviors can be revealed by the upper and lower curves in transition probability. Three dynamic regimes are discovered from two time periods including linear, quasi-linear, and nonlinear patterns. There is a clear link between liberalization policy and market nonlinearity. Numerical estimation of a market turning point is close to the historical event of the US 2008 financial crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Tang, Yinan & Chen, Ping, 2015. "Transition probability, dynamic regimes, and the critical point of financial crisis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 430(C), pages 11-20.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:430:y:2015:i:c:p:11-20
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2015.02.015
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Wolfram Elsner, 2019. "Policy and state in complexity economics," Chapters, in: Nikolaos Karagiannis & John E. King (ed.), A Modern Guide to State Intervention, chapter 1, pages 13-48, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Tan, Zhengxun & Liu, Juan & Chen, Juanjuan, 2021. "Detecting stock market turning points using wavelet leaders method," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 565(C).
    3. Bentes, Sónia R., 2021. "On the hysteresis of financial crises in the US: Evidence from S&P 500," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 565(C).

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