IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v430y2015icp11-20.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Transition probability, dynamic regimes, and the critical point of financial crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Tang, Yinan
  • Chen, Ping

Abstract

An empirical and theoretical analysis of financial crises is conducted based on statistical mechanics in non-equilibrium physics. The transition probability provides a new tool for diagnosing a changing market. Both calm and turbulent markets can be described by the birth–death process for price movements driven by identical agents. The transition probability in a time window can be estimated from stock market indexes. Positive and negative feedback trading behaviors can be revealed by the upper and lower curves in transition probability. Three dynamic regimes are discovered from two time periods including linear, quasi-linear, and nonlinear patterns. There is a clear link between liberalization policy and market nonlinearity. Numerical estimation of a market turning point is close to the historical event of the US 2008 financial crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Tang, Yinan & Chen, Ping, 2015. "Transition probability, dynamic regimes, and the critical point of financial crisis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 430(C), pages 11-20.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:430:y:2015:i:c:p:11-20
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2015.02.015
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437115001132
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2015.02.015?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    2. Reinhart, Karmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. ""This time is different": panorama of eight centuries of financial crises," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 77-114, March.
    3. Alfarano, Simone & Lux, Thomas & Wagner, Friedrich, 2008. "Time variation of higher moments in a financial market with heterogeneous agents: An analytical approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 101-136, January.
    4. Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), 2006. "Handbook of Computational Economics," Handbook of Computational Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 2, number 2.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    6. Dopfer,Kurt (ed.), 2005. "The Evolutionary Foundations of Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521621991, October.
    7. Tesfatsion, Leigh & Judd, Kenneth L., 2006. "Handbook of Computational Economics, Vol. 2: Agent-Based Computational Economics," Staff General Research Papers Archive 10368, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    8. Aoki,Masanao, 2004. "Modeling Aggregate Behavior and Fluctuations in Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521606196, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wolfram Elsner, 2019. "Policy and state in complexity economics," Chapters, in: Nikolaos Karagiannis & John E. King (ed.), A Modern Guide to State Intervention, chapter 1, pages 13-48, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Tan, Zhengxun & Liu, Juan & Chen, Juanjuan, 2021. "Detecting stock market turning points using wavelet leaders method," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 565(C).
    3. Bentes, Sónia R., 2021. "On the hysteresis of financial crises in the US: Evidence from S&P 500," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 565(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tang, Yinan & Chen, Ping, 2014. "Time varying moments, regime switch, and crisis warning: The birth–death process with changing transition probability," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 404(C), pages 56-64.
    2. Kirill S. Glavatskiy & Mikhail Prokopenko & Adrian Carro & Paul Ormerod & Michael Harré, 2021. "Explaining herding and volatility in the cyclical price dynamics of urban housing markets using a large-scale agent-based model," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(6), pages 1-21, June.
    3. Y. Lemp'eri`ere & C. Deremble & P. Seager & M. Potters & J. P. Bouchaud, 2014. "Two centuries of trend following," Papers 1404.3274, arXiv.org.
    4. Andreas Fuster & Benjamin Hebert & David Laibson, 2012. "Natural Expectations, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Asset Pricing," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 1-48.
    5. Kirill S. Glavatskiy & Mikhail Prokopenko & Adrian Carro & Paul Ormerod & Michael Harre, 2020. "Explaining herding and volatility in the cyclical price dynamics of urban housing markets using a large scale agent-based model," Papers 2004.07571, arXiv.org.
    6. Paul De Grauwe & Yuemei Ji, 2019. "Inflation Targets and the Zero Lower Bound in a Behavioural Macroeconomic Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 86(342), pages 262-299, April.
    7. Chiarella, Carl & Di Guilmi, Corrado, 2011. "The financial instability hypothesis: A stochastic microfoundation framework," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1151-1171, August.
    8. Leonardo Bargigli & Gabriele Tedeschi, 2013. "Major trends in agent-based economics," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 8(2), pages 211-217, October.
    9. Chiarella Carl & Di Guilmi Corrado, 2015. "The limit distribution of evolving strategies in financial markets," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 137-159, April.
    10. Arnold, Bruce & Borio, Claudio & Ellis, Luci & Moshirian, Fariborz, 2012. "Systemic risk, macroprudential policy frameworks, monitoring financial systems and the evolution of capital adequacy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 3125-3132.
    11. Dani Rodrik, 2018. "Populism and the economics of globalization," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 1(1), pages 12-33, June.
    12. Daisuke Ikeda & Toan Phan & Timothy Sablik, 2020. "Asset Bubbles and Global Imbalances," Richmond Fed Economic Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 20, pages 1-4, January.
    13. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "Recovery from Financial Crises: Evidence from 100 Episodes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 50-55, May.
    14. Steven J. Davis & John C. Haltiwanger & Kyle Handley & Ben Lipsius & Josh Lerner & Javier Miranda, 2021. "The economic effects of private equity buyouts," Jena Economics Research Papers 2021-013, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    15. Manuel Funke & Moritz Schularick & Christoph Trebesch, 2023. "Populist Leaders and the Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(12), pages 3249-3288, December.
    16. Roos, Michael W. M., 2015. "The macroeconomics of radical uncertainty," Ruhr Economic Papers 592, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    17. Christoph Trebesch, 2019. "Resolving sovereign debt crises: the role of political risk," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(2), pages 421-444.
    18. Pogany, Peter, 2013. "Thermodynamic Isolation and the New World Order," MPRA Paper 49924, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Prabheesh, K.P. & Anglingkusumo, Reza & Juhro, Solikin M., 2021. "The dynamics of global financial cycle and domestic economic cycles: Evidence from India and Indonesia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 831-842.
    20. Röhrs, Sigrid & Winter, Christoph, 2017. "Reducing government debt in the presence of inequality," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1-20.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:430:y:2015:i:c:p:11-20. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.