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Zinsstruktur als Konjunkturindikator: Wie variabel ist die Prognosekraft?

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  • Schrimpf, Andeas
  • Wang, Qingwei

Abstract

Welchen Informationsgehalt haben Finanzmarktvariablen für die künftige reale Entwicklung? Vielfach wird, basierend auf der Evidenz früherer empirischer Studien, vor einer inversen Zinsstruktur als Indikator für eine kommende konjunkturelle Schwächeperiode gewarnt. In der letzten Zeit hat sich die Zinsstrukturkurve im Euroraum abgeflacht, in den Vereinigten Staaten liegt nun schon länger eine inverse Zinsstruktur vor, also eine Situation, in der langfristige unterhalb der kurzfristigen Zinsen liegen. Diese aktuellen Entwicklungen haben uns motiviert, die Zeitvariation der Prognosekraft der Zinsstrukturkurve eingehender zu untersuchen.

Suggested Citation

  • Schrimpf, Andeas & Wang, Qingwei, 2007. "Zinsstruktur als Konjunkturindikator: Wie variabel ist die Prognosekraft?," ZEW Wachstums- und Konjunkturanalysen, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, vol. 10(1), pages 6-7.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewwka:125973
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Amit Goyal & Ivo Welch, 2003. "Predicting the Equity Premium with Dividend Ratios," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(5), pages 639-654, May.
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