IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/zbw/rwikon/289765.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2028: Potenzialwachstum absehbar nur gering

Author

Listed:
  • Kirsch, Florian
  • Barabas, György
  • Schmidt, Torsten

Abstract

Das Wachstum des Produktionspotenzials der deutschen Volkswirtschaft geht in den kommenden Jahren voraussichtlich weiter zurück. Hierzu trägt insbesondere die demografische Entwicklung bei. Die Alterung der Bevölkerung dürfte dazu führen, dass die Anzahl der Personen im erwerbsfähigen Alter und das potenzielle Arbeitsvolumen ihre vorläufigen Hochpunkte überschreiten und im weiteren Projektionszeitraum bis zum Jahr 2028 zurückgehen werden. Gleichzeitig erholt sich die deutsche Wirtschaft voraussichtlich nur zögerlich von der derzeitigen Schwächephase, so dass sich die derzeit negative Produktionslücke nur langsam schließt.

Suggested Citation

  • Kirsch, Florian & Barabas, György & Schmidt, Torsten, 2023. "Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2028: Potenzialwachstum absehbar nur gering," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 74(4), pages 70-80.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwikon:289765
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/289765/1/rwi-kb_4-2023-3.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Karel Havik & Kieran Mc Morrow & Fabrice Orlandi & Christophe Planas & Rafal Raciborski & Werner Roeger & Alessandro Rossi & Anna Thum-Thysen & Valerie Vandermeulen, 2014. "The Production Function Methodology for Calculating Potential Growth Rates & Output Gaps," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 535, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    2. Schmidt, Torsten & Barabas, György & Benner, Niklas & Blagov, Boris & Dirks, Maximilian & Isaak, Niklas & Jessen, Robin & Kirsch, Florian & Krause, Clara & Schacht, Philip, 2023. "Jahresende 2023: Privater Konsum dämpft die konjunkturelle Erholung in Deutschland," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 74(4), pages 30-69.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Peter Hennecke, 2021. "The ECB’s New Monetary Policy Strategy," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 56(5), pages 295-298, September.
    2. Cronin, David & McQuinn, Kieran, 2021. "Are official forecasts of output growth in the EU still biased?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 337-349.
    3. Josef Baumgartner & Serguei Kaniovski & Simon Loretz, 2023. "Rückgang der Energiepreise verbessert die Wachstumsaussichten. Update der mittelfristigen Prognose 2023 bis 2027," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 96(4), pages 235-248, April.
    4. Albonico, Alice & Calés, Ludovic & Cardani, Roberta & Croitorov, Olga & Ferroni, Filippo & Giovannini, Massimo & Hohberger, Stefan & Pataracchia, Beatrice & Pericoli, Filippo Maria & Raciborski, Rafal, 2019. "Comparing post-crisis dynamics across Euro Area countries with the Global Multi-country model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 242-273.
    5. Lorenzo Burlon & Paolo D'Imperio, 2019. "The euro-area output gap through the lens of a DSGE model," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 477, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Larch, Martin & Cugnasca, Alessandro & Kumps, Diederik & Orseau, Eloïse, 2019. "Fiscal policy and the assessment of output gaps in real time: An exercise in risk management," ZEW Discussion Papers 19-013, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    7. Hayk Karapetyan, 2019. "Estimating Potential Output at the Central Bank of Armenia," Working Papers 12, Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia.
    8. Josef Baumgartner & Serguei Kaniovski & Hans Pitlik & Margit Schratzenstaller, 2015. "Mäßiges Wirtschaftswachstum mit hoher Arbeitslosigkeit. Mittelfristige Prognose der österreichischen Wirtschaft bis 2020," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 88(10), pages 779-796, October.
    9. Philipp Heimberger & Jakob Kapeller, 2017. "The performativity of potential output: pro-cyclicality and path dependency in coordinating European fiscal policies," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(5), pages 904-928, September.
    10. Marius Clemens & Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Claus Michelsen, 2020. "Fortschreibung der Kapazitätsauslastung in der TFP-Berechnung: Endbericht; Kurzexpertise im Auftrag des Bundesfinanzministeriums (fe 3/19)," DIW Berlin: Politikberatung kompakt, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, volume 127, number pbk160.
    11. Josef Baumgartner & Serguei Kaniovski & Hans Pitlik, 2023. "Österreichs Wirtschaft wächst mittelfristig nur verhalten. Mittelfristige Prognose 2024 bis 2028," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 96(10), pages 667-683, October.
    12. Mellár, Tamás & Németh, Kristóf, 2018. "A kibocsátási rés becslése többváltozós állapottérmodellekben. Szuperhiszterézis és további empirikus eredmények [Estimating output gap in multivariate state space models. Super-hysteresis and furt," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 557-591.
    13. Katja Heinisch & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2017. "The European refugee crisis and the natural rate of output," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(16), pages 1138-1142, September.
    14. Pönkä, Harri & Sariola, Mikko, 2021. "Output gaps and cyclical indicators: Finnish evidence," BoF Economics Review 6/2021, Bank of Finland.
    15. Andrea Elekes, Péter Halmai, 2019. "How to overcome the crisis of the European growth potential? The role of the government," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 16(2), pages 313-334, December.
    16. Federico Bassi, 2020. "Chronic Excess Capacity and Unemployment Hysteresis in EU Countries. A Structural Approach," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def091, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    17. Cláudia Duarte & José R. Maria & Sharmin Sazedj, 2021. "Cyclical outputs and structural budget balances," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    18. Barabas, György & Gebhardt, Heinz & Schmidt, Torsten & Weyerstraß, Klaus, 2016. "Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2021: Binnenwirtschaftliche Impulse bei erhöhter weltwirtschaftlicher Unsicherheit," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 67(4), pages 17-32.
    19. Guido Bulligan & Lorenzo Burlon & Davide Delle Monache & Andrea Silvestrini, 2019. "Real and financial cycles: estimates using unobserved component models for the Italian economy," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 28(3), pages 541-569, September.
    20. Sariola, Mikko, 2019. "An unobserved components model for Finland – Estimates of potential output and NAWRU," BoF Economics Review 2/2019, Bank of Finland.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:rwikon:289765. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rwiesde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.