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Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2028: Potenzialwachstum absehbar nur gering

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  • Kirsch, Florian
  • Barabas, György
  • Schmidt, Torsten

Abstract

Das Wachstum des Produktionspotenzials der deutschen Volkswirtschaft geht in den kommenden Jahren voraussichtlich weiter zurück. Hierzu trägt insbesondere die demografische Entwicklung bei. Die Alterung der Bevölkerung dürfte dazu führen, dass die Anzahl der Personen im erwerbsfähigen Alter und das potenzielle Arbeitsvolumen ihre vorläufigen Hochpunkte überschreiten und im weiteren Projektionszeitraum bis zum Jahr 2028 zurückgehen werden. Gleichzeitig erholt sich die deutsche Wirtschaft voraussichtlich nur zögerlich von der derzeitigen Schwächephase, so dass sich die derzeit negative Produktionslücke nur langsam schließt.

Suggested Citation

  • Kirsch, Florian & Barabas, György & Schmidt, Torsten, 2023. "Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2028: Potenzialwachstum absehbar nur gering," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 74(4), pages 70-80.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwikon:289765
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Karel Havik & Kieran Mc Morrow & Fabrice Orlandi & Christophe Planas & Rafal Raciborski & Werner Roeger & Alessandro Rossi & Anna Thum-Thysen & Valerie Vandermeulen, 2014. "The Production Function Methodology for Calculating Potential Growth Rates & Output Gaps," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 535, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    2. Schmidt, Torsten & Barabas, György & Benner, Niklas & Blagov, Boris & Dirks, Maximilian & Isaak, Niklas & Jessen, Robin & Kirsch, Florian & Krause, Clara & Schacht, Philip, 2023. "Jahresende 2023: Privater Konsum dämpft die konjunkturelle Erholung in Deutschland," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 74(4), pages 30-69.
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