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Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2024: Potenzialwachstum wenig dynamisch

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  • Barabas, György
  • Isaak, Niklas
  • Micheli, Martin

Abstract

Die Zunahme des Produktionspotenzials in Deutschland wird sich in der mittleren Frist voraussichtlich deutlich verlangsamen. Maßgeblich hierfür ist die demografische Entwicklung. Wir erwarten für den Zeitraum bis 2024 eine Zunahme um durchschnittlich 1,2% pro Jahr. Die Zuwachsraten nehmen dabei im Verlauf des Projektionszeitraum jedoch deutlich ab. Aufgrund des schwächeren Potentialwachstums dürfte sich auch der Anstieg des Bruttoinlandsprodukts in der mittleren Frist verlangsamen. Wir gehen in der Mittelfristprojektion zwar davon aus, dass sich der Aufschwung fortsetzen wird. Die gesamtwirtschaftliche Expansion wird jedoch nur noch in etwa der des Produktionspotenzial entsprechen.

Suggested Citation

  • Barabas, György & Isaak, Niklas & Micheli, Martin, 2019. "Projektion der Wirtschaftsentwicklung bis 2024: Potenzialwachstum wenig dynamisch," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 70(4), pages 23-33.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwikon:218809
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2019. "Industrie in der Rezession – Wachstumskräfte schwinden," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(19), pages 03-74, October.
    2. Karel Havik & Kieran Mc Morrow & Fabrice Orlandi & Christophe Planas & Rafal Raciborski & Werner Roeger & Alessandro Rossi & Anna Thum-Thysen & Valerie Vandermeulen, 2014. "The Production Function Methodology for Calculating Potential Growth Rates & Output Gaps," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 535, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    3. Robert J. Gordon, 2012. "Is U.S. Economic Growth Over? Faltering Innovation Confronts the Six Headwinds," NBER Working Papers 18315, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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