IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/zbw/rwikon/171736.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Unsicherheit über Brexit-Modalitäten prägt Konjunktur in Großbritannien

Author

Listed:
  • Döhrn, Roland
  • Rujin, Svetlana

Abstract

Prognosen der konjunkturellen Entwicklung in Großbritannien sind derzeit mit dem Problem behaftet, dass bis spätestens März 2019 über die Art und Weise des Austritts des Landes aus der EU entschieden sein muss. Je nachdem, wie diese Entscheidung aussieht, kann sich die wirtschaftliche Zukunft Großbritanniens günstiger (im Falle eines sanften Übergangs) oder ungünstiger im Falle eines harten Brexit darstellen. Ausgangspunkt dieses Beitrags ist eine Prognose für Großbritannien unter Status-quo -Bedingungen. Danach wird kurz auf verschiedenen Optionen der Gestaltung der künftigen Beziehungen Großbritanniens zur EU eingegangen. Anschließend werden mit Hilfe von Simulationen mit dem RWI-Mehrländermodell mögliche Abweichungen von der vorgelegten Prognose simuliert. Die Rechnungen zeigen in Übereinstimmung mit der seit dem Brexit-Referendum beobachteten Entwicklung des britischen Außenhandels, dass die kräftige Abwertung des Pfund Sterling nicht positiv auf die gesamtwirtschaftliche Aktivität wirkte. Potenziell große Wirkungen hätten Einschränkungen des freien Warenverkehrs. Dämpfend auf die Wirtschaft wirkt auch, dass sich Unternehmen in der Phase der Unsicherheit mit Investitionen zurückhalten. Die Übertragungseffekte auf den übrigen Euro-Raum sind negativ, aber gering.

Suggested Citation

  • Döhrn, Roland & Rujin, Svetlana, 2017. "Unsicherheit über Brexit-Modalitäten prägt Konjunktur in Großbritannien," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 68(3), pages 49-65.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwikon:171736
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/171736/1/1002900093.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    2. Ansgar Belke & Irina Dubova & Thomas Osowski, 2018. "Policy uncertainty and international financial markets: the case of Brexit," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(34-35), pages 3752-3770, July.
    3. Swati Dhingra & Gianmarco Ottaviano & John Van Reenen & Jonathan Wadsworth, 2016. "Brexit and the Impact of Immigration on the UK," CEP Brexit Analysis Papers 05, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    4. Svetlana Rujin & Torsten Schmidt, 2015. "Zinswende in den USA — Fluch oder Segen für die Konjunktur im Euroraum?," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 95(3), pages 186-191, March.
    5. International Monetary Fund, 2016. "United Kingdom: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2016/058, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Baker, Jessica & Carreras, Oriol & Kirby, Simon & Meaning, Jack & Piggott, Rebecca, 2016. "Modelling events: The short-term economic impact of leaving the EU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 339-350.
    7. International Monetary Fund, 2016. "United Kingdom: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2016/169, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Ebell, Monique & Hurst, Ian & Warren, James, 2016. "Modelling the long-run economic impact of leaving the European Union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 196-209.
    9. Schmidt, Torsten & Blagov, Boris & Döhrn, Roland & Grozea-Helmenstein, Daniela & Jäger, Philipp & Micheli, Martin & Rujin, Svetlana, 2016. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Ausland: Stabilisierung der Konjunktur auf niedrigem Niveau," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 67(3), pages 5-24.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ansgar Belke & Thomas Osowski, 2019. "International Effects Of Euro Area Versus U.S. Policy Uncertainty: A Favar Approach," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(1), pages 453-481, January.
    2. Christine Arriola & Caitlyn Carrico & David Haugh & Nigel Pain & Elena Rusticelli & Donal Smith & Frank van Tongeren & Ben Westmore, 2018. "The Potential Macroeconomic and Sectoral Consequences of Brexit on Ireland," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1508, OECD Publishing.
    3. Ansgar Belke & Dominik Kronen, 2017. "The impact of uncertainty on macro variables - An SVAR-based empirical analysis for EU countries," ROME Working Papers 201708, ROME Network.
    4. Istiak, Khandokar & Serletis, Apostolos, 2020. "Risk, uncertainty, and leverage," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 257-273.
    5. Pitsoulis, Athanassios & Schwuchow, Soeren, 2018. "Though this be madness: A game-theoretic perspective on the Brexit negotiations," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181635, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Harald Oberhofer & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2021. "Estimating the trade and welfare effects of Brexit: A panel data structural gravity model," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(1), pages 338-375, February.
    7. Bouri, Elie & Jalkh, Naji, 2024. "Flight-to-safety across time and market conditions," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    8. Christopher Thiem, 2020. "Cross-Category, Trans-Pacific Spillovers of Policy Uncertainty and Financial Market Volatility," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 317-342, April.
    9. Sakariyahu, Rilwan & Lawal, Rodiat & Adigun, Rasheed & Paterson, Audrey & Johan, Sofia, 2024. "One crash, too many: Global uncertainty, sentiment factors and cryptocurrency market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    10. Julián Andrada-Félix & Adrian Fernandez-Perez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2021. "Stress Spillovers among Financial Markets: Evidence from Spain," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-21, November.
    11. Swati Dhingra & Stephen Machin & Henry Overman, 2017. "Local Economic Effects of Brexit," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 242(1), pages 24-36, November.
    12. Nino Buliskeria & Jaromir Baxa & Tomas Sestorad, 2023. "Uncertain Trends in Economic Policy Uncertainty," Working Papers 2023/16, Czech National Bank.
    13. Benjamin Born & Gernot J Müller & Moritz Schularick & Petr Sedláček, 2019. "The Costs of Economic Nationalism: Evidence from the Brexit Experiment," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(623), pages 2722-2744.
    14. Nong, Huifu, 2021. "Have cross-category spillovers of economic policy uncertainty changed during the US–China trade war?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    15. Makram El-Shagi & Steven Yamarik, 2023. "Growth Effects of EU Expansion: A Penalized Synthetic Control Method," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2023/4, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.
    16. Hassan F Gholipour & Robin Nunkoo & Behzad Foroughi & Hassan Kalantari Daronkola, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty, consumer confidence in major economies and outbound tourism to African countries," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(4), pages 979-994, June.
    17. Ali-Yrkkö, Jyrki & Kuusi, Tero, 2019. "Brexit and Indirect Impact Routes through Global Value Chains," ETLA Reports 89, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    18. Mudassar Hasan & Muhammad Abubakr Naeem & Muhammad Arif & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Safwan Mohd Nor, 2020. "Role of Economic Policy Uncertainty in the Connectedness of Cross-Country Stock Market Volatilities," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-17, October.
    19. Peterson Kitakogelu Ozili, 2020. "Financial reporting under economic policy uncertainty," Journal of Financial Reporting and Accounting, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 19(2), pages 325-338, December.
    20. Adele Bergin & Abian Garcia-Rodriguez & Edgar L. W. Morgenroth & Donal Smith, 2017. "Modelling the Medium- to Long-Term Potential Macroeconomic Impact of Brexit on Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 48(3), pages 305-316.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:rwikon:171736. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rwiesde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.