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Konjunktur aktuell: Eurokrise nimmt deutscher Konjunktur den Wind aus den Segeln

Author

Listed:
  • Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich
  • Drechsel, Katja
  • Giesen, Sebastian
  • Holtemöller, Oliver
  • Kämpfe, Martina
  • Knedlik, Tobias
  • Lindner, Axel
  • Loose, Brigitte
  • Schultz, Birgit
  • Zeddies, Götz
  • Dovern, Jonas
  • Hennecke, Peter
  • Meier, Carsten-Patrick

Abstract

Im Herbst 2012 stellen sich Lage und Aussichten für die deutsche Konjunktur deutlich schlechter dar als vor einem halben Jahr. Hauptgrund dafür sind die immer neuen Schübe der Schulden- und Vertrauenskrise im Euroraum. Auch die Weltkonjunktur hat generell an Kraft verloren. Die Produktion hat in Deutschland in der ersten Jahreshälfte weiter zugelegt. Auch im dritten Quartal 2012 dürfte sie zunehmen, und zwar um 0,4%. Für das Winterhalbjahr 2012/ 2013 deutet sich dann allerdings eine Verlangsamung des konjunkturellen Fahrtempos an. Alles in allem wird das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt 2012 voraussichtlich um 0,9% und 2013 um 0,8% zulegen. Das 66%-Prognoseintervall liegt für das Jahr 2012 zwischen 0,7% und 1,1%; im Jahr 2013 reicht es von –0,2% bis 1,8%.

Suggested Citation

  • Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich & Drechsel, Katja & Giesen, Sebastian & Holtemöller, Oliver & Kämpfe, Martina & Knedlik, Tobias & Lindner, Axel & Loose, Brigitte & Schultz, Birgit & Zeddies, Götz & Dovern, Jon, 2012. "Konjunktur aktuell: Eurokrise nimmt deutscher Konjunktur den Wind aus den Segeln," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 18(8-9), pages 228-258.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwhwiw:iwh-8-12-3
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    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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