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Mögliche Effekte des demographischen Wandels-Ein Überblick-

Author

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  • Steinmann, Gunter
  • Fuchs, Olaf
  • Tagge, Sven

Abstract

Eine für alle Bereiche von Wirtschaft und Politik maßgebliche Änderung der Rahmenbedingung ist die Abnahme und Alterung der Bevölkerung. Dies wird vielschichtige Anpassungsprozesse auslösen. Das Ergebnis liefert kein einheitliches Bild. Negativ zu bewerten sind die Auswirkungen der Alterung auf die sozialen Sicherungssysteme und die Staatsfinanzen. Die Wirkungen auf Wachstum und technischen Fortschritt sind demgegenüber nicht eindeutig. Negative Einflüsse müssen jedoch befürchtet werden. Die oft erwarteten positiven Effekte für den Arbeitsmarkt, insbesondere die Abnahme der Arbeitslosigkeit, können ökonomisch nicht begründet werden. Die Auswirkungen auf die Akkumulation und Aktualisierung von Humankapital sind nicht eindeutig. Sie hängen maßgeblich von der Anpassung der Lebensarbeitszeit, der Art des technischen Fortschritts und der Produktionsstrukturen ab.

Suggested Citation

  • Steinmann, Gunter & Fuchs, Olaf & Tagge, Sven, 2002. "Mögliche Effekte des demographischen Wandels-Ein Überblick-," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 8(15), pages 470-480.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwhwiw:iwh-15-02-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Daron Acemoglu, 2002. "Directed Technical Change," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 69(4), pages 781-809.
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    Cited by:

    1. Niebuhr, Annekatrin & Stiller, Silvia, 2005. "Demographischer Wandel in Norddeutschland: Konsequenzen und Handlungsbedarf," HWWA Reports 250, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    2. Lehmann, Harald, 2004. "Auswirkungen demografischer Veränderungen auf Niveau und Struktur des Privaten Verbrauchs – eine Prognose für Deutschland bis 2050 –," IWH Discussion Papers 195/2004, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

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