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Eine migrationsfreundlichere Gesellschaft durch den Generationenwandel? Kohortenanalysen für Ost- und Westdeutschland

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  • Schmidt, Katja

Abstract

Die vorliegende Untersuchung analysiert die Wirkkraft des Generationenaustauschs auf das Meinungsklima zu Zugewanderten in Ost- und Westdeutschland. Theoretisch basiert der Beitrag auf Mannheims Generationentheorie sowie auf gruppenkonflikttheoretischen Ansätzen und der Kontakthypothese. Empirische Grundlage für die Kohortenanalysen bietet die theoretisch begründete Generationeneinteilung für die ost- und westdeutschen Geburtskohorten zwischen 1908 und 1999. Basierend auf den Daten des European Social Survey (ESS) von 2002 bis 2018 kann die These verworfen werden, dass der Prozess der Generationenablösung in Deutschland zu einem stetig toleranter und offener werdenden Meinungsklima zu Zugewanderten führen werde. Vielmehr ist ein Generationenverlauf zu beobachten, der nicht linear verläuft, sondern schwankend. So weisen die jüngsten Generationen in Westdeutschland wieder negativere Haltungen zu Zugewanderten auf als die in den 1970er Jahren sozialisierte Generation der frühen Babyboomer, die wiederum deutlich zuwandererfreundlicher ist als die älteste Kriegsgeneration. Im Osten hingegen sind im gesamten Generationenverlauf im Vergleich zur Kriegsgeneration keine signifikanten Einstellungsänderungen zu beobachten. Des Weiteren verweisen die Befunde der Panelanalyse auf Kohortenebene auf eine gewisse Stabilität der Einstellungen innerhalb der Generationen bei sich verändernder Bedrohungsfaktoren auf der Kontextebene. Weder Veränderungen der Arbeitslosenquote noch des Anteils an Personen mit Migrationshintergrund führen im Beobachtungszeitraum zu Einstellungsänderungen. Einzig der Anstieg an Schutzsuchenden führt zu etwas restriktiveren Haltungen zu Zugewanderten innerhalb der Generationen.

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  • Schmidt, Katja, 2022. "Eine migrationsfreundlichere Gesellschaft durch den Generationenwandel? Kohortenanalysen für Ost- und Westdeutschland," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 73(4), pages 639-679.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:espost:280898
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    References listed on IDEAS

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