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Climate Change Effects on Employment in the Nigeria’s Agricultural Sector

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  • Alehile, Kehinde Samuel

Abstract

Climate change poses mounting risks to agricultural development and rural livelihoods in Nigeria. This study investigates the impacts of climate change on agricultural sector employment in Nigeria. Agriculture provides income and sustenance for much of Nigeria’s rural population. However, smallholder rain-fed farming predominates, with minimal resilience to climate shifts. Historical data reveal rising temperatures and declining, erratic rainfall across Nigeria’s agro-ecological zones since the 1970s. Crop modeling predicts further climate changes will reduce yields of key staple crops. This threatens the viability of smallholder agriculture and risks widespread job losses. The study adopts a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) modeling approach to evaluate climate change effects on agricultural sector employment in Nigeria from 1990 to 2020. Findings reveal reduced rainfall initially raises employment, as farming requires more labor in dry conditions. However, protracted droughts significantly reduce agricultural jobs. Increased temperatures consistently lower farm employment through reduced yields and incomes. Based on these findings, the study recommends that adaptive strategies are urgently needed to build resilience, promote climate-smart agriculture, and safeguard rural livelihoods.

Suggested Citation

  • Alehile, Kehinde Samuel, 2023. "Climate Change Effects on Employment in the Nigeria’s Agricultural Sector," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 11(3), pages 1-23.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:espost:280832
    DOI: 10.1142/S2345748123500185
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Abayomi Samuel Oyekale, 2015. "Access to Risk Mitigating Weather Forecasts and Changes in Farming Operations in East and West Africa: Evidence from a Baseline Survey," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(11), pages 1-19, October.
    2. Venkat, Kumar, 2012. "The Climate Change and Economic Impacts of Food Waste in the United States," International Journal on Food System Dynamics, International Center for Management, Communication, and Research, vol. 2(4), pages 1-16, April.
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