Analysis of climate and land use changes impacts on land degradation in the North China Plain

Land degradation is a complex process which involves both the natural ecosystem and the socioeconomic system, among which climate and land use changes are the two predominant driving factors. To comprehensively and quantitatively analyze the land degradation process, this paper employed the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as a proxy to assess land degradation and further applied the binary panel logit regression model to analyze the impacts of the driving factors on land degradation in the North China Plain. The results revealed that an increase in rainfall and temperature would significantly and positively contribute to the land improvement, and conversion from cultivated land to grassland and forest land showed positive relationship with land improvement, while conversion to built-up area will lead to land degradation. Besides, human agricultural intensification represented by fertilizer utilization will help to improve the land quality. The economic development may exert positive impacts on land quality to alleviate land degradation, although the rural economic development and agricultural production will exert negative impacts on the land and lead to land degradation. Infrastructure construction would modify the land surface and further resulted in land degradation. The findings of the research will provide scientific information for sustainable land management.