IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wut/journl/v1y2020p47-66id1481.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Risk estimation and decision making in management (in selected areas of science)

Author

Listed:
  • Tadeusz Galanc
  • Wiktor Kołwzan
  • Jerzy Pieronek
  • Agnieszka Skowronek-Grądziel

Abstract

Risk is a category that is inseparably connected with uncertainty and probability, which means that the nature of risk as a category of science is complex, and the concept of risk is very difficult to define by one conceptual system of modern science. Due to the above, the main research hypothesis of the work is oriented to the assumption that the complexity of the risk category is determined by the diversity (variety) of reality, as a result of which in science there is currently no uniform methodology for risk assessment and estimation. As a result, the main goal of the article is to describe the research area based on selected representative methods of risk estimation and logical decision-making schemes, as well as to systematise the knowledge about the methodology used in them. In the article, the authors illustrate risk estimation with examples developed by themselves and quoted from various fields of science, differing from one another in formal terms in quantitative and qualitative (numerical and content-verbally) dimensions. Strategic risk, risk of fraction estimation, Bayesian risk, Bayesian methods for estimation of population distribution parameters, risk of econometric model assessment, interest rate risk, banking risk, and adverse event as a measure of risk are here addressed. The article also focuses on the problem of risk estimation in terms of the theory of fractals. The work is to have not only cognitive but also practical meaning. The created source of knowledge should prove helpful for decision-makers in the area of management since effective process management requires the expertise of risk estimation in various dimensions and using various mathematical tools.

Suggested Citation

  • Tadeusz Galanc & Wiktor Kołwzan & Jerzy Pieronek & Agnieszka Skowronek-Grądziel, 2020. "Risk estimation and decision making in management (in selected areas of science)," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 30(1), pages 47-66.
    • Handle: RePEc:wut:journl:v:1:y:2020:p:47-66:id:1481
    DOI: 10.37190/ord200103
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ord.pwr.edu.pl/assets/papers_archive/1481%20-%20published.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.37190/ord200103?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aven, Terje, 2016. "Risk assessment and risk management: Review of recent advances on their foundation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 253(1), pages 1-13.
    2. Tadeusz Galanc & Wiktor Kołwzan & Jerzy Pieronek & Agnieszka Skowronek-Grądziel, 2016. "Logic and risk as qualitative and quantitative dimensions of decision-making processes," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 26(3), pages 21-42.
    3. Barbara Gładysz & Dorota Kuchta, 2011. "A method of variable selection for fuzzy regression – the possibility approach," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 21(2), pages 5-15.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aven, Terje & Renn, Ortwin, 2018. "Improving government policy on risk: Eight key principles," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 230-241.
    2. repec:arp:tjssrr:2019:p:69-75 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Mussard, Stéphane & Pi Alperin, María Noel, 2021. "Accounting for risk factors on health outcomes: The case of Luxembourg," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 291(3), pages 1180-1197.
    4. Zio, E., 2018. "The future of risk assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 176-190.
    5. Tasneem Bani-Mustafa & Nicola Pedroni & Enrico Zio & Dominique Vasseur & Francois Beaudouin, 2020. "A hierarchical tree-based decision-making approach for assessing the relative trustworthiness of risk assessment models," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 234(6), pages 748-763, December.
    6. Heiner Ackermann & Erik Diessel & Michael Helmling & Neil Jami & Johanna Münch, 2024. "Computing Optimal Mitigation Plans for Force-Majeure Scenarios in Dynamic Manufacturing Chains," SN Operations Research Forum, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 1-35, June.
    7. Aigner, Philipp & Schlütter, Sebastian, 2023. "Enhancing gradient capital allocation with orthogonal convexity scenarios," ICIR Working Paper Series 47/23, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).
    8. Mangirdas Morkunas & Gintaras Cernius & Gintare Giriuniene, 2019. "Assessing Business Risks of Natural Gas Trading Companies: Evidence from GET Baltic," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-14, July.
    9. Scholz, Roland W. & Czichos, Reiner & Parycek, Peter & Lampoltshammer, Thomas J., 2020. "Organizational vulnerability of digital threats: A first validation of an assessment method," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 282(2), pages 627-643.
    10. Dr Jason Mwanza & Nothando Tshuma, 2023. "Mitigating Business Risk in Manufacturing SMEs: A nexus between informal and formal business risk management: A case of Bulawayo, Zimbabwe," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 7(1), pages 1107-1138, January.
    11. Li, Weijun & Sun, Qiqi & Zhang, Jiwang & Zhang, Laibin, 2024. "Quantitative risk assessment of industrial hot work using Adaptive Bow Tie and Petri Nets," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    12. Badir Yousif Rafee Alharmoodi & Muhammad Modi Lakulu, 2022. "The Formulation and Validation of a Conceptual Framework for the Transition from E-government to M-government," European Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies Articles, Revistia Research and Publishing, vol. 8, January -.
    13. Don Pagach & Monika Wieczorek-Kosmala, 2020. "The Challenges and Opportunities for ERM Post-COVID-19: Agendas for Future Research," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-10, December.
    14. KeumJi Kim & SeongHwan Yoon, 2018. "Assessment of Building Damage Risk by Natural Disasters in South Korea Using Decision Tree Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-22, April.
    15. Aven, Terje, 2020. "Three influential risk foundation papers from the 80s and 90s: Are they still state-of-the-art?," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    16. Tatiana Yu. Kudryavtseva & Angi E. Skhvediani & Maiia S. Leukhina & Alexandra O. Schneider, 2023. "A Fuzzy Model for Personnel Risk Analysis: Case of Russian-Finnish Export-Import Operations of Small and Medium Enterprises," Journal of Applied Economic Research, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 22(3), pages 683-709.
    17. Marcin Nowak & Rafał Mierzwiak & Marcin Butlewski, 2020. "Occupational risk assessment with grey system theory," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 28(2), pages 717-732, June.
    18. Kjell Hausken, 2019. "Principal–Agent Theory, Game Theory, and the Precautionary Principle," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 16(2), pages 105-127, June.
    19. Kayode Ajewole & Elliott Dennis & Ted C. Schroeder & Jason Bergtold, 2021. "Relative valuation of food and non‐food risks with a comparison to actuarial values: A best–worst approach," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(6), pages 927-943, November.
    20. Tadeusz Galanc & Wiktor Kołwzan & Jerzy Pieronek & Agnieszka Skowronek-Grądziel, 2017. "Management and decisions in the structures of human activities," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 27(4), pages 45-69.
    21. Štefan Markulik & Marek Šolc & Peter Blaško, 2024. "Use of Risk Management to Support Business Sustainability in the Automotive Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-24, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wut:journl:v:1:y:2020:p:47-66:id:1481. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Adam Kasperski (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iopwrpl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.