IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wun/journl/tjev04y2011i1(13)a06.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Inflation Targeting In Romania in the Perspective of Joining the Exchange Rate Mechanism II

Author

Listed:
  • Marius Constantin APOSTOAIE

    (Universitatea „Alexandru Ioan Cuza” din Iasi, Facultatea de Economie si Administrarea Afacerilor, România)

Abstract

Since the early 1990, when the Reserve Bank of New Zeeland instituted for the first time inflation targeting (IT) as its monetary policy framework, IT gained reputation, becoming the monetary regime of choice of many central banks around the world. Among them, the National Bank or Romania changed in mid-2005 the strategy of the monetary policy with IT. As a member of the European Union, Romania’s ultimately aspiration is the adoption of the euro as a means to achieve its objective of full participation in the European Monetary Union. In order to accomplish that, among other nominal and real convergence criteria, Romania must spend at least two years in the ERM II, keeping its exchange rate towards the euro stable, inside a band of ±15%. The purpose of this paper is to identify the challenges of direct IT implementation in Romania in the current context with the perspective of joining the ERM II. We will find out that IT, as current monetary policy strategy, is to be maintained at least until the ERM II entry. After that the NBR’s focus will shift back from price stability to exchange rate stability, and thus, a strict IT framework will not be appropriate anymore (the co-existence of IT with an explicit exchange rate objective being quite problematic). The paper concludes that a soft version of inflation-targeting is more appropriate under the given circumstances.

Suggested Citation

  • Marius Constantin APOSTOAIE, 2011. "Inflation Targeting In Romania in the Perspective of Joining the Exchange Rate Mechanism II," Timisoara Journal of Economics, West University of Timisoara, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 4(1(13)), pages 43-56.
    • Handle: RePEc:wun:journl:tje:v04:y2011:i1(13):a06
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://tje.uvt.ro/index.php/tje/article/download/103/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2009. "Monetary Economics in Globalised Financial Markets," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-540-71003-5, January.
    2. Daianu, Daniel & Kallai, Ella, 2008. "Disinflation and Inflation Targeting in Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(1), pages 59-81, March.
    3. Gerald A. Epstein & A. Erinc Yeldan (ed.), 2009. "Beyond Inflation Targeting," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13168.
    4. Fuchun Li & Pierre St-Amant, 2010. "Financial Stress, Monetary Policy, and Economic Activity," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2010(Autumn), pages 9-18.
    5. Michael Dotsey, 2006. "A review of inflation targeting in developed countries," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q3, pages 10-20.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bogdan IFTIMIE & Simona-Mihaela CHIRU, 2016. "Macroeconomic Performances Under Inflation Targeting. The Case Of Romania," ECONOMIC COMPUTATION AND ECONOMIC CYBERNETICS STUDIES AND RESEARCH, Faculty of Economic Cybernetics, Statistics and Informatics, vol. 50(3), pages 193-209.
    2. Kilinc, Mustafa & Tunc, Cengiz, 2019. "The asymmetric effects of monetary policy on economic activity in Turkey," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 505-528.
    3. François-Éric Racicot & Raymond Théoret, 2022. "Tracking market and non-traditional sources of risks in procyclical and countercyclical hedge fund strategies under extreme scenarios: a nonlinear VAR approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-56, December.
    4. Berganza, Juan Carlos & Broto, Carmen, 2012. "Flexible inflation targets, forex interventions and exchange rate volatility in emerging countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 428-444.
    5. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Ozdemir, Huseyin & Aygun, Gurcan & Wohar, Mark E., 2021. "Effectives of Monetary Policy under the High and Low Economic Uncertainty States: Evidence from the Major Asian Economies," IZA Discussion Papers 14420, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Leonardo Vera, 2017. "The Distribution of Power and the Inflation-Unemployment Relationship in the United States: A Post-Keynesian Approach," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 49(2), pages 265-285, June.
    7. Ebney Ayaj Rana & Mustafa Kamal, 2018. "Does Clientelism Affect Income Inequality? Evidence from Panel Data," Journal of Income Distribution, Ad libros publications inc., vol. 26(1), pages 1-24, March.
    8. Ansgar Belke & Sebastian Ptok, 2018. "British-European Trade Relations and Brexit: An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Economic and Financial Uncertainty on Exports," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-22, August.
    9. Thibaut Duprey, 2020. "Canadian Financial Stress and Macroeconomic Condition," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 46(S3), pages 236-260, October.
    10. Ján Malega & Roman Horváth, 2017. "Financial Stress in the Czech Republic: Measurement and Effects on the Real Economy," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2017(3), pages 257-268.
    11. Veerayooth Kanchoochat, 2014. "Coalition Politics and Reform Dynamics in Thailand," GRIPS Discussion Papers 13-26, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    12. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir & Huseyin Ozdemir & Gurcan Aygun & Mark E. Wohar, 2022. "Effectiveness of monetary policy under the high and low economic uncertainty states: evidence from the major Asian economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(4), pages 1741-1769, October.
    13. Emilio Ocampo, 2020. "The Global Disinflation Puzzle. A Selective Review of the Theory and Evidence in an Historical Context," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 726, Universidad del CEMA.
    14. Renée Fry-Mckibbin & Jasmine Zheng, 2016. "Effects of the US monetary policy shocks during financial crises – a threshold vector autoregression approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(59), pages 5802-5823, December.
    15. Manfred Kremer, 2016. "Macroeconomic effects of financial stress and the role of monetary policy: a VAR analysis for the euro area," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 105-138, January.
    16. Yeldan Erinc A., 2008. "Prospects for Inflation Targeting in the MENA Region: Feasibility, Desirability and Alternatives," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 4(3), pages 83-100, September.
    17. Awijen, Haithem & Hammami, Sami, 2017. "Financial frictions and regime switching: The role of collateral asset in emerging stock market," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-6, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    18. Ying Chen & Bo Li & Linlin Niu, 2013. "A Local Vector Autoregressive Framework and its Applications to Multivariate Time Series Monitoring and Forecasting," Working Papers 2013-12-05, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    19. Pei-Tha Gan, 2019. "Economic uncertainty, precautionary motive and the augmented form of money demand function," Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 397-423, December.
    20. Ansgar Belke & Marcel Wiedmann, 2013. "Monetary Policy, Stock Prices and Central Banks - Cross-Country Comparisons of Cointegrated VAR Models," Ruhr Economic Papers 0435, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; inflation targeting; european monetary union; ERM II;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wun:journl:tje:v04:y2011:i1(13):a06. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Romeo Margea (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feuvtro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.