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Economic Growth In China And Its Potential Impact On Australia–China Bilateral Trade: A Projection For 2025 Based On The Cge Analysis

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Listed:
  • YU SHENG

    (Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, School of Advanced Agricultural Science, The Peking University, Beijing 100080, China)

  • PETER DRYSDALE

    (Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia)

  • CHUNLAI CHEN

    (Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia)

Abstract

This paper uses the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Static Model to predict the potential impact of economic growth in China on bilateral trade between China and Australia in 2025, under three different scenarios representing the business as usual, the successful reform and the stagnation cases, respectively. The results show that exports from Australia to China will continue to increase in both absolute and relative terms, irrespective of which economic growth path China takes, partly due to the strong complementary relationship of production between the two countries. The results also indicate that education service exports will become a new engine of bilateral trade in addition to agricultural and mineral products. Furthermore, comparing the results obtained from the three scenarios shows how successful reform will bring more benefits to both China and Australia in trade, which provides useful insights for policy making to facilitate bilateral economic relationship.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu Sheng & Peter Drysdale & Chunlai Chen, 2019. "Economic Growth In China And Its Potential Impact On Australia–China Bilateral Trade: A Projection For 2025 Based On The Cge Analysis," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 64(04), pages 839-862, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:serxxx:v:64:y:2019:i:04:n:s0217590817450059
    DOI: 10.1142/S0217590817450059
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