IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wsi/serxxx/v63y2018i03ns0217590816500260.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Float, Speculation And Stock Price: Evidence From The Split Share Structure Reform In China

Author

Listed:
  • CHUAN-YANG HWANG

    (Nanyang Business School, Nanyang Technological University, S3-01B-46 Nanyang Avenue, Singapore 639798, Singapore)

  • SHAOJUN ZHANG

    (#x2020;School of Accounting and Finance, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong)

  • YANJIAN ZHU

    (#x2021;College of Economics, Zhejiang University, 38 Zheda Road, Hangzhou 310027, China)

Abstract

The Split Share Structure Reform in China offers a unique opportunity to test whether the supply of tradable shares (i.e., float) has a significant impact on the degree of speculation. After firms completed the reform, their float increased by 31% on average, while turnover and trading volume also increased substantially. We use information from firms’ reform plan to derive an estimate of the price premium of tradable shares over non-tradable shares before the reform and find that, after controlling for differences in liquidity and profitability, the price premium is significantly related to proxies for the level of speculative trading in tradable shares. Moreover, firms that were highly speculated before the reform had significantly smaller increase in turnover and trading volume than firms that were less speculated. Overall, our evidence confirms that there is a significant speculative component in the market price of tradable shares in China and a large increase in float dampens speculative trading.

Suggested Citation

  • Chuan-Yang Hwang & Shaojun Zhang & Yanjian Zhu, 2018. "Float, Speculation And Stock Price: Evidence From The Split Share Structure Reform In China," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 63(03), pages 701-729, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:serxxx:v:63:y:2018:i:03:n:s0217590816500260
    DOI: 10.1142/S0217590816500260
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S0217590816500260
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1142/S0217590816500260?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kai Li & Tan Wang & Yan-Leung Cheung & Ping Jiang, 2011. "Privatization and Risk Sharing: Evidence from the Split Share Structure Reform in China," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(7), pages 2499-2525.
    2. Stoll, Hans R. & Whaley, Robert E., 1983. "Transaction costs and the small firm effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 57-79, June.
    3. Douglas Cumming & Wenxuan Hou, 2014. "Valuation of restricted shares by conflicting shareholders in the Split Share Structure Reform," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(7-9), pages 778-802, September.
    4. Jianping Mei & Jose A. Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2009. "Speculative Trading and Stock Prices: Evidence from Chinese A-B Share Premia," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 10(2), pages 225-255, November.
    5. Allen, Franklin & Qian, Jun & Qian, Meijun, 2005. "Law, finance, and economic growth in China," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 57-116, July.
    6. Longstaff, Francis A, 1995. "How Much Can Marketability Affect Security Values?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1767-1774, December.
    7. Lesmond, David A., 2005. "Liquidity of emerging markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 411-452, August.
    8. Chen, Joseph & Hong, Harrison & Stein, Jeremy C., 2002. "Breadth of ownership and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 171-205.
    9. Harrison Hong & José Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2006. "Asset Float and Speculative Bubbles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(3), pages 1073-1117, June.
    10. Bernard, Vl, 1987. "Cross-Sectional Dependence And Problems In Inference In Market-Based Accounting Research," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 1-48.
    11. Chen, Chao & Jin, Qinglu & Yuan, Hongqi, 2011. "Agency problems and liquidity premium: Evidence from China's stock ownership reform," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 76-87, April.
    12. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1986. "Asset pricing and the bid-ask spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 223-249, December.
    13. Lesmond, David A & Ogden, Joseph P & Trzcinka, Charles A, 1999. "A New Estimate of Transaction Costs," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(5), pages 1113-1141.
    14. Marco Pagano, 1989. "Trading Volume and Asset Liquidity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(2), pages 255-274.
    15. Miller, Edward M, 1977. "Risk, Uncertainty, and Divergence of Opinion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1151-1168, September.
    16. Jose A. Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2003. "Overconfidence and Speculative Bubbles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(6), pages 1183-1219, December.
    17. Firth, Michael & Lin, Chen & Zou, Hong, 2010. "Friend or Foe? The Role of State and Mutual Fund Ownership in the Split Share Structure Reform in China," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(3), pages 685-706, June.
    18. Eli Ofek & Matthew Richardson, 2003. "DotCom Mania: The Rise and Fall of Internet Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1113-1137, June.
    19. A. Craig MacKinlay, 1997. "Event Studies in Economics and Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 13-39, March.
    20. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1991. "Liquidity, Maturity, and the Yields on U.S. Treasury Securities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1411-1425, September.
    21. repec:bla:ecnote:v:33:y:2004:i:1:p:3-22 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. repec:bla:jfinan:v:58:y:2003:i:3:p:1113-1138 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. J. Michael Harrison & David M. Kreps, 1978. "Speculative Investor Behavior in a Stock Market with Heterogeneous Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 92(2), pages 323-336.
    24. Brennan, Michael J, 2004. "How Did It Happen?," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt1047x6kv, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jianping Mei & Jose A. Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2009. "Speculative Trading and Stock Prices: Evidence from Chinese A-B Share Premia," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 10(2), pages 225-255, November.
    2. Liu, Clark & Wang, Shujing & Wei, K.C. John, 2021. "Demand shock, speculative beta, and asset prices: Evidence from the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect program," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    3. Ding, Rong & Cheng, Peng, 2011. "Speculative trading, price pressure and overvaluation," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 419-442, July.
    4. Wei Xiong, 2013. "Bubbles, Crises, and Heterogeneous Beliefs," NBER Working Papers 18905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Feng, Xunan & Johansson, Anders C. & Wei, Dengxi, 2023. "Judging a book by its cover: Analysts and attention-driven price patterns in China's IPO market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    6. Eom, Yunsung, 2021. "Kimchi premium and speculative trading in bitcoin," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    7. Pavlidis, Efthymios G. & Vasilopoulos, Kostas, 2020. "Speculative bubbles in segmented markets: Evidence from Chinese cross-listed stocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    8. Kaizoji, Taisei (kaizoji@icu.ac.jp), 2010. "A Behavioral Model of Bubbles and Crashes," MPRA Paper 20352, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Jianping Mei & Jose Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2005. "Speculative Trading and Stock Prices: An Analysis of Chinese A-B Share Premia," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000867, UCLA Department of Economics.
    10. Wang, Peipei & Wen, Yuanji & Singh, Harminder, 2017. "The high-volume return premium: Does it exist in the Chinese stock market?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB), pages 323-336.
    11. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications," CAMA Working Papers 2013-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    12. Penasse, J.N.G. & Renneboog, L.D.R., 2014. "Bubbles and Trading Frenzies : Evidence from the Art Market," Other publications TiSEM bf0d8984-df7f-4f02-afc7-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    13. Jose A. Scheinkman, 2013. "Speculation, Trading and Bubbles Third Annual Arrow Lecture," Working Papers 1458, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Econometric Research Program..
    14. Julien Pénasse & Luc Renneboog, 2022. "Speculative Trading and Bubbles: Evidence from the Art Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(7), pages 4939-4963, July.
    15. Brunnermeier, Markus K. & Oehmke, Martin, 2013. "Bubbles, Financial Crises, and Systemic Risk," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1221-1288, Elsevier.
    16. Tibor Neugebauer & Sascha Füllbrunn, 2013. "Deflating Bubbles in Experimental Asset Markets: Comparative Statics of Margin Regulations," LSF Research Working Paper Series 13-14, Luxembourg School of Finance, University of Luxembourg.
    17. Andrew Ang & Assaf A. Shtauber & Paul C. Tetlock, 2013. "Asset Pricing in the Dark: The Cross-Section of OTC Stocks," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(12), pages 2985-3028.
    18. Julien Pénasse & Luc Renneboog & José A Scheinkman & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2021. "When a Master Dies: Speculation and Asset Float [Optimal financial crises]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(8), pages 3840-3879.
    19. Guo, Hui & Qiu, Buhui, 2014. "Options-implied variance and future stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 93-113.
    20. Turan G. Bali & Andriy Bodnaruk & Anna Scherbina & Yi Tang, 2018. "Unusual News Flow and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(9), pages 4137-4155, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wsi:serxxx:v:63:y:2018:i:03:n:s0217590816500260. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tai Tone Lim (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.worldscinet.com/ser/ser.shtml .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.