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Oil Price Volatility And The Singapore Macroeconomy

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  • WEIWEN NG

    (Singapore Management University, Singapore)

Abstract

We construct a realized volatility measure, using prices of daily West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures and illustrate the robustness of this oil price volatility–macroeconomy relationship under a multivariate co-integrated vector autoregressive (VAR) model. Empirical results suggest that a spike in oil price volatility leads to investments and aggregate output to decline and inflation to rise over the period from 1983Q2 to 2009Q2. Furthermore, the gradual decline of Singapore's oil intensity signals a weakening relationship between oil price and the macroeconomy that supports our empirical findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Weiwen Ng, 2012. "Oil Price Volatility And The Singapore Macroeconomy," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 57(03), pages 1-26.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:serxxx:v:57:y:2012:i:03:n:s0217590812500221
    DOI: 10.1142/S0217590812500221
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Olivier J. Blanchard & Jordi Gali, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Shocks: Why are the 2000s So Different from the 1970s?," NBER Working Papers 13368, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. James L. Pierce & Jared J. Enzler, 1974. "The Effects of External Inflationary Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 5(1), pages 13-62.
    3. Olivier J. Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Shocks: Why Are the 2000s so Different from the 1970s?," NBER Chapters, in: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, pages 373-421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Rasche, Robert H. & Tatom, John A., 1981. "Energy price shocks, aggregate supply and monetary policy: The theory and the international evidence," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 9-93, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ibrahim, Mansor H. & Ahmed, Huson Joher Ali, 2014. "Permanent and transitory oil volatility and aggregate investment in Malaysia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 552-563.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil price volatility; Singapore macroeconomic performance; multivariate VAR; impulse response function; oil intensity; C32; E32; Q43;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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