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Growth Econometrics In The Tropics: What Insights For Southeast Asian Economic Development?

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  • HAL HILL

    (Division of Economics, Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies, Australian National University, Canberra ACT 0200, Australia)

  • SAM HILL

    (Division of Economics, Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies, Australian National University, Canberra ACT 0200, Australia)

Abstract

This paper attempts to distil the key conclusions from the very large literature on the empirics of growth and to apply them to the development record of the five major Southeast Asian economies for which we have reasonably long-term data — Indonesia, Malaysia, The Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. These five display a considerable range of development outcomes, ranging from consistently high growth, to episodes of boom and crisis, and to low average growth. After estimating a series of general empirical models from a large sample of countries, we examine how well these fit the observed outcomes in these particular Southeast Asian countries. Our broad finding is that the average model does reasonably well in explaining outcomes in Singapore and Thailand, but that the residuals for Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines are quite large and persistent across different specifications.

Suggested Citation

  • Hal Hill & Sam Hill, 2005. "Growth Econometrics In The Tropics: What Insights For Southeast Asian Economic Development?," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 50(spec0), pages 313-343.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:serxxx:v:50:y:2005:i:spec0:n:s0217590805002062
    DOI: 10.1142/S0217590805002062
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Romain Wacziarg & Karen Horn Welch, 2008. "Trade Liberalization and Growth: New Evidence," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 22(2), pages 187-231, June.
    2. Garnaut,Ross & Grilli,Enzo & Riedel,James (ed.), 1995. "Sustaining Export-Oriented Development," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521483049, October.
    3. Hill,Hal, 2000. "The Indonesian Economy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521663670, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tao Kong, 2007. "A Selective Review of Recent Developments in the Economic Growth Literature," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 21(1), pages 1-33, May.
    2. Hal Hill, 2005. "The Malaysian Economy: Past Successes, Future Challenges (Paper for inclusion in a volume on Malaysia edited by Dr Colin Barlow and to be published by Edward Elgar)," Departmental Working Papers 2005-10, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.

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    Keywords

    Economic growth; South-East Asia;

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