IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wsi/rpbfmp/v16y2013i01ns0219091513500069.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Chinese RMB Fluctuation and Overall Unemployment Rates in US

Author

Listed:
  • Ziran Li

    (Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No. 55, Zhongguancun East Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100190, China)

  • Qin Bao

    (Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No. 55, Zhongguancun East Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100190, China)

  • Shouyang Wang

    (Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No. 55, Zhongguancun East Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100190, China)

  • Siwei Cheng

    (Research Center on Fictitious Economy & Data Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No. 55, Zhongguancun East Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100080, China)

Abstract

The relation between China's RMB exchange rate and US real economy has recently become a hotly debated issue among scholars, researchers, and policymakers. Using monthly data from Nov. 2001–Nov. 2010, this paper employs the cointegration test and VECM model to capture the relationships among the Chinese RMB exchange rate, US–China bilateral trade, and the US unemployment rate. Results indicate that the US unemployment rate is negatively correlated with the RMB exchange rate. Impulse response analysis discloses the transmission mechanism of RMB appreciation: an appreciation of the RMB leads to a drop in US–China bilateral trade, which associates with a slight rise in the US unemployment rate. A potential explanation for these unconventional results lie in the complementary industrial structures between the two countries. Some policy suggestions are made at the end.

Suggested Citation

  • Ziran Li & Qin Bao & Shouyang Wang & Siwei Cheng, 2013. "An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Chinese RMB Fluctuation and Overall Unemployment Rates in US," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 16(01), pages 1-18.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:rpbfmp:v:16:y:2013:i:01:n:s0219091513500069
    DOI: 10.1142/S0219091513500069
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S0219091513500069
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1142/S0219091513500069?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. J. Bradford Jensen & Lori G. Kletzer, 2008. ""Fear" and Offshoring: The Scope and Potential Impact of Imports and Exports of Services," Policy Briefs PB08-1, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    2. Naércio Aquino Menezes Filho & Marc-Andreas Muendler, 2007. "Labor Reallocation in Response to Trade Reform," CESifo Working Paper Series 1936, CESifo.
    3. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    4. J. Bradford Jensen, 2011. "Global Trade in Services: Fear, Facts, and Offshoring," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 6017, April.
    5. repec:zbw:bofitp:2007_006 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wing-Choong Lai & Kim-Leng Goh, 2019. "Impact of Chinese Yuan Devaluation on the Dependence Structure: The Archimedean Copula Approach," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(01), pages 1-27, March.
    2. Wing-Choong Lai & Kim-Leng Goh, 2021. "Dependence Structure Between Renminbi Movements and Volatility of Foreign Exchange Rate Returns," China Report, , vol. 57(1), pages 57-78, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kent Eliasson & Pär Hansson, 2016. "Are workers more vulnerable in tradable industries?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 152(2), pages 283-320, May.
    2. Justin Doran & Bernard Fingleton, 2014. "Economic shocks and growth: Spatio-temporal perspectives on Europe's economies in a time of crisis," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 93, pages 137-165, November.
    3. Arturas Juodis, 2013. "Cointegration Testing in Panel VAR Models Under Partial Identification and Spatial Dependence," UvA-Econometrics Working Papers 13-08, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Dept. of Econometrics.
    4. Lisbeth Funding la Cour, 1995. "A Component® based Analysis of the danish Long-run Money Demand Relation," Discussion Papers 95-18, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    5. Levent, Korap, 2007. "Modeling purchasing power parity using co-integration: evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 19584, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Alessia Naccarato & Andrea Pierini & Giovanna Ferraro, 2021. "Markowitz portfolio optimization through pairs trading cointegrated strategy in long-term investment," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 81-99, April.
    7. Darrian Collins & Clem Tisdell, 2004. "Outbound Business Travel Depends on Business Returns: Australian Evidence," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(2), pages 192-207, June.
    8. Christian Schoder, 2012. "Effective demand, exogenous normal utilization and endogenous capacity in the long run. Evidence from a CVAR analysis for the US," IMK Working Paper 103-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    9. Muhammad Shahbaz & Vassilios G. Papavassiliou & Amine Lahiani & David Roubaud, 2023. "Are we moving towards decarbonisation of the global economy? Lessons from the distant past to the present," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 2620-2634, July.
    10. Karaman Örsal, Deniz Dilan & Droge, Bernd, 2014. "Panel cointegration testing in the presence of a time trend," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 377-390.
    11. Jakšić Saša, 2022. "Modelling Determinants of Inflation in CESEE Countries: Global Vector Autoregressive Approach," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 22(2), pages 137-169, June.
    12. António Duarte, 2009. "The Portuguese Disinflation Process: Analysis of Some Costs and Benefits," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 16(1), pages 157-173, May.
    13. Njangang Henri & Nembot Ndeffo Luc & Nawo Larissa, 2019. "The Long‐run and Short‐run Effects of Foreign Direct Investment on Financial Development in African Countries," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 31(2), pages 216-229, June.
    14. Lego, Brian & Gebremedhin, Tesfa & Cushing, Brian, 2000. "A Multi-Sector Export Base Model of Long-Run Regional Employment Growth," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(2), pages 192-197, October.
    15. Ali MNA & Moheddine YOUNSI, 2018. "A monetary conditions index and its application on Tunisian economic forecasting," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 38-56, March.
    16. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Paap, R., 1999. "Forecasting with periodic autoregressive time series models," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9927-/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    17. Oostendorp, Remco H. & Doan, Quang Hong, 2013. "Have the returns to education really increased in Vietnam? Wage versus employment effect," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 923-938.
    18. Andrei A Levchenko & Jing Zhang, 2013. "The Global Labor Market Impact of Emerging Giants: A Quantitative Assessment," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(3), pages 479-519, August.
    19. Hauser, Shmuel & Kedar-Levy, Haim & Milo, Orit, 2022. "Price discovery during parallel stocks and options preopening: Information distortion and hints of manipulation," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 59(PA).
    20. Jaromir Benes & David Vavra, 2004. "Eigenvalue Decomposition of Time Series with Application to the Czech Business Cycle," Working Papers 2004/08, Czech National Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    RMB appreciation; US unemployment; VECM; impulse response; F16; F13; F59;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wsi:rpbfmp:v:16:y:2013:i:01:n:s0219091513500069. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tai Tone Lim (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.worldscinet.com/rpbfmp/rpbfmp.shtml .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.