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Is The Announced Monetary Union In Gcc Countries Feasible? A Multivariate Structural Var Approach

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  • MAGDA KANDIL

    (Egyptian Center for Economic Studies, Egypt)

  • MOHAMED TRABELSI

    (Dubai Economic Policy and Research Center, U.A.E.)

Abstract

This paper tests the desirability and feasibility of the establishment of a monetary union in GCC countries using a multivariate structural VAR during the period 1980–2006. The paper builds on the earlier work, capitalizing on a methodology that captures supply and demand disturbances impinging on individual economies. Co-movements of shocks across countries are considered a crucial condition towards integration in a common currency area. Shocks are based on the estimation of a structural VAR model that comprises world real output, domestic output, real exchange rates, and the price level. Based on correlations using supply, demand, and nominal shocks, the paper establishes the following results: (i) countries of the region are still far from the necessary conditions to ensure the success of joining a currency union. Nevertheless, for a subset of countries (Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar), conditions suggest higher potential to take the lead in endorsing and fostering a common currency zone, (ii) a higher degree of labor mobility, openness, and intra-regional mobility are still desired to accelerate regional integration and ensure a steady path towards the establishment of a currency union.

Suggested Citation

  • Magda Kandil & Mohamed Trabelsi, 2012. "Is The Announced Monetary Union In Gcc Countries Feasible? A Multivariate Structural Var Approach," Middle East Development Journal (MEDJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(01), pages 1-18.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:medjxx:v:04:y:2012:i:01:n:s1793812012500010
    DOI: 10.1142/S1793812012500010
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Sturm, Michael & Siegfried, Nikolaus, 2005. "Regional monetary integration in the member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council," Occasional Paper Series 31, European Central Bank.
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    6. Louis, Rosmy & Balli, Faruk & Osman, Mohammad, 2008. "Monetary Union Among Arab Gulf Cooperation Council (AGCC) Countries: Does the symmetry of shocks extend to the non-oil sector?," MPRA Paper 11611, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Mr. Esteban Jadresic, 2002. "On a Common Currency for the GCC Countries," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 2002/012, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Aamer S. Abu‐Qarn & Suleiman Abu‐Bader, 2008. "On the Optimality of a GCC Monetary Union: Structural VAR, Common Trends, and Common Cycles Evidence," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 612-630, May.
    9. Mr. Bassem M Kamar & Sami Ben Naceur, 2007. "GCC Monetary Union and the Degree of Macroeconomic Policy Coordination," IMF Working Papers 2007/249, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Raimundo Soto & Bassem Kamar, 2015. "Monetary Policy and Economic Performance in Resource Dependent Economies," Documentos de Trabajo 462, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    2. Essahbi Essaadi, 2017. "The feasibility of currency union in Gulf Cooperation Council countries: A business cycle synchronisation view," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(10), pages 2153-2171, October.
    3. Shafighi, Najla & Gharleghi, Behrooz, 2016. "Feasibility of a currency union in East Asia using the five-variable structural vector autoregressive model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 45-54.
    4. Kim, Won Joong & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2013. "Impacts of global and domestic shocks on inflation and economic growth for actual and potential GCC member countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 298-317.
    5. repec:idn:jimfjn:v:4:y:2018:i:2:p:1-14 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Abdulghaffar, Mahmood & Al-Ubaydli, Omar & Mahmood, Omar, 2014. "The Malfunctioning of the Gulf Cooperation Council Single Market: Features, Causes and Remedies," MPRA Paper 55413, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Ashraf Nakibullah, 2017. "State of Shocks Synchronization among Members of the GCC," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 8(1), pages 15-23, June.
    8. Jongwanich, Juthathip & Wongcharoen, Petchtharin & Park, Donghyun, 2016. "Determinants of Consumer Price Inflation versus Producer Price Inflation in Asia," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 491, Asian Development Bank.

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