IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wsi/ijtafx/v18y2015i08ns0219024915500508.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Valuation Of Options On Oil Futures Under The 3/4 Oil Price Model

Author

Listed:
  • MOHAMMED A. ABA OUD

    (Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Al Imam Mohammad Ibn Saud Islamic University (IMSIU), Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia)

  • JOANNA GOARD

    (School of Mathematics and Applied Statistics, University of Wollongong, Northfields Ave, Wollongong 2522, NSW, Australia)

Abstract

Recently, an empirically-validated one-factor model with a 3/4-power diffusion term was introduced in the literature to model oil prices and value futures contracts on oil. In this paper, we provide an exact and analytic approximation for European call option prices on futures under a 3/4-power futures model. The analytic approximation, valid for short times to expiry is then calibrated to market prices. Results from the calibration show that the analytic approximation formula outperforms current popular options on futures formulae in capturing market prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammed A. Aba Oud & Joanna Goard, 2015. "Valuation Of Options On Oil Futures Under The 3/4 Oil Price Model," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(08), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ijtafx:v:18:y:2015:i:08:n:s0219024915500508
    DOI: 10.1142/S0219024915500508
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S0219024915500508
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1142/S0219024915500508?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1985. "Evaluating Natural Resource Investments," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(2), pages 135-157, April.
    2. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    3. Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1997. "The Stochastic Behavior of Commodity Prices: Implications for Valuation and Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 923-973, July.
    4. Mohammed A. Aba Oud & Joanna Goard, 2015. "Stochastic Models for Oil Prices and the Pricing of Futures on Oil," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 189-206, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Björn Lutz, 2010. "Pricing of Derivatives on Mean-Reverting Assets," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Springer, number 978-3-642-02909-7, July.
    2. Insley, M.C. & Wirjanto, T.S., 2010. "Contrasting two approaches in real options valuation: Contingent claims versus dynamic programming," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 157-176, April.
    3. Benjamin Cheng & Christina Nikitopoulos-Sklibosios & Erik Schlogl, 2015. "Pricing of Long-dated Commodity Derivatives with Stochastic Volatility and Stochastic Interest Rates," Research Paper Series 366, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    4. Joanna Goard & Mohammed AbaOud, 2023. "A Bimodal Model for Oil Prices," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-26, May.
    5. Bulan, Laarni & Mayer, Christopher & Somerville, C. Tsuriel, 2009. "Irreversible investment, real options, and competition: Evidence from real estate development," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 237-251, May.
    6. Ke Du, 2013. "Commodity Derivative Pricing Under the Benchmark Approach," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2013, January-A.
    7. Iivo Vehvilainen, 2002. "Basics of electricity derivative pricing in competitive markets," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 45-60.
    8. Marcel Philipp Müller & Sebastian Stöckl & Steffen Zimmermann & Bernd Heinrich, 2016. "Decision Support for IT Investment Projects," Business & Information Systems Engineering: The International Journal of WIRTSCHAFTSINFORMATIK, Springer;Gesellschaft für Informatik e.V. (GI), vol. 58(6), pages 381-396, December.
    9. Miranda, Oscar & Brandão, Luiz E. & Lazo Lazo, Juan, 2017. "A dynamic model for valuing flexible mining exploration projects under uncertainty," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 393-404.
    10. Armstrong, Margaret & Langrené, Nicolas & Petter, Renato & Chen, Wen & Petter, Carlos, 2019. "Accounting for tailings dam failures in the valuation of mining projects," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-1.
    11. repec:dau:papers:123456789/9318 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Siña, Matías & Guzmán, Juan Ignacio, 2019. "Real option valuation of open pit mines with two processing methods," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 30-39.
    13. Cortazar, Gonzalo & Casassus, Jaime, 1998. "Optimal Timing of a Mine Expansion: Implementing a Real Options Model," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(3, Part 2), pages 755-769.
    14. Foo, Nam & Bloch, Harry & Salim, Ruhul, 2018. "The optimisation rule for investment in mining projects," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 123-132.
    15. Chuang-Chang Chang & Miao-Ying Chen, 2012. "Re-examining the investment-uncertainty relationship in a real options model," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 241-255, February.
    16. Bryant, Henry L. & Haigh, Michael S., 2003. "Comparing The Performances Of The Partial Equilibrium And Time-Series Approaches To Hedging," Working Papers 28580, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    17. repec:dau:papers:123456789/6782 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Ke Du, 2013. "Commodity Derivative Pricing Under the Benchmark Approach," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 2, July-Dece.
    19. Andrianos E. Tsekrekos & Mark B. Shackleton & Rafał Wojakowski, 2012. "Evaluating Natural Resource Investments under Different Model Dynamics: Managerial Insights," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 18(4), pages 543-575, September.
    20. Lander, Diane M. & Pinches, George E., 1998. "Challenges to the Practical Implementation of Modeling and Valuing Real Options," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(3, Part 2), pages 537-567.
    21. Won, Chaehwan, 2009. "Valuation of investments in natural resources using contingent-claim framework with application to bituminous coal developments in Korea," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1215-1224.
    22. Anh Ngoc Lai & Constantin Mellios, 2016. "Valuation of commodity derivatives with an unobservable convenience yield," Post-Print halshs-01183166, HAL.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wsi:ijtafx:v:18:y:2015:i:08:n:s0219024915500508. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tai Tone Lim (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.worldscinet.com/ijtaf/ijtaf.shtml .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.