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Pca-Based Ex-Ante Forecasting Of Swap Term Structures

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  • OLIVER BLASKOWITZ

    (Landesbank Berlin AG, Alexanderplatz 2, 10178 Berlin, Germany;
    School of Business and Economics, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, 10178 Berlin, Germany)

  • HELMUT HERWARTZ

    (Institute of Statistics and Econometrics, Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel, 24098 Kiel, Germany)

Abstract

In this study, we forecast the term structure of EURIBOR swap rates by means of rolling vector autoregressive (VAR) models. In advance, a principal component analysis (PCA) is adopted to reduce the dimensionality of the term structure. To statistically assess the forecasting performance for particular rates and the level, slope and curvature of the swap term structure, we rely on the Henrikkson–Merton statistic. Economic performance is investigated by means of cash flows implied by alternative trading strategies. Finally, a data-driven, adaptive model selection strategy to "predict the best forecasting model" out of a set of 100 alternative PCA/VAR implementations is shown to outperform forecasting schemes that rely on global homogeneity of the term structure.

Suggested Citation

  • Oliver Blaskowitz & Helmut Herwartz, 2009. "Pca-Based Ex-Ante Forecasting Of Swap Term Structures," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(04), pages 465-489.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ijtafx:v:12:y:2009:i:04:n:s021902490900535x
    DOI: 10.1142/S021902490900535X
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
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    Cited by:

    1. Blaskowitz, Oliver & Herwartz, Helmut, 2011. "On economic evaluation of directional forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1058-1065, October.

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