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Event ambiguity fuels the effective spread of rumors

Author

Listed:
  • Jiuping Xu

    (Business School, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610064, P. R. China)

  • Yi Zhang

    (Business School, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610064, P. R. China;
    Department of Mathematics, Yibin University, Yibin 644007, P. R. China)

Abstract

In this paper, a new rumor spreading model which quantifies a specific rumor spreading feature is proposed. The specific feature focused on is the important role the event ambiguity plays in the rumor spreading process. To study the impact of this event ambiguity on the spread of rumors, the probabilityp(t)that an individual becomes a rumor spreader from an initially unaware person at timetis built.p(t)reflects the extent of event ambiguity, and a parametercofp(t)is used to measure the speed at which the event moves from ambiguity to confirmation. At the same time, a principle is given to decide on the correct value for parametercA rumor spreading model is then developed with this function added as a parameter to the traditional model. Then, several rumor spreading model simulations are conducted with different values forcon both regular networks and ER random networks. The simulation results indicate that a rumor spreads faster and more broadly whencis smaller. This shows that if events are ambiguous over a longer time, rumor spreading appears to be more effective, and is influenced more significantly by parametercin a random network than in a regular network. We then determine parameters of this model through data fitting of the missing Malaysian plane, and apply this model to an analysis of the missing Malaysian plane. The simulation results demonstrate that the most critical time for authorities to control rumor spreading is in the early stages of a critical event.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiuping Xu & Yi Zhang, 2015. "Event ambiguity fuels the effective spread of rumors," International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 26(03), pages 1-16.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ijmpcx:v:26:y:2015:i:03:n:s0129183115500333
    DOI: 10.1142/S0129183115500333
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Huo, Liang’an & Cheng, Yingying, 2019. "Dynamical analysis of a IWSR rumor spreading model with considering the self-growth mechanism and indiscernible degree," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 536(C).
    2. Yanlan Mei & Yan Tu & Kefan Xie & Yicheng Ye & Wenjing Shen, 2019. "Internet Public Opinion Risk Grading under Emergency Event Based on AHPSort II-DEMATEL," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-16, August.

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