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Opinion Dynamics And Decision Of Vote In Bipolar Political Systems

Author

Listed:
  • FILIPPO CARUSO

    (Scuola Superiore di Catania, Via S. Paolo 73, 95123 Catania, Italy)

  • PAOLO CASTORINA

    (Department of Physics, University of Catania and INFN, Sezione di Catania, Via S. Sofia 64, I-95123, Catania, Italy)

Abstract

A model of the opinion dynamics underlying the political decision is proposed. The analysis is restricted to a bipolar scheme with a possible third political area. The interaction among voters is local but the final decision strongly depends on global effects such as the rating of the governments. As in the realistic case, the individual decision making process is determined by the most relevant personal interests and problems. The phenomenological analysis of the national vote in Italy and Germany has been carried out and a prediction of the next Italian vote as a function of the government rating is presented.

Suggested Citation

  • Filippo Caruso & Paolo Castorina, 2005. "Opinion Dynamics And Decision Of Vote In Bipolar Political Systems," International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 16(09), pages 1473-1487.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ijmpcx:v:16:y:2005:i:09:n:s0129183105008059
    DOI: 10.1142/S0129183105008059
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hoover, W.G., 1995. "Comment on “Two disks in a box” [R.J. Speedy, Physica A 210 (1994) 341]," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 216(1), pages 195-195.
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    Cited by:

    1. Corentin Vande Kerckhove & Samuel Martin & Pascal Gend & Peter J Rentfrow & Julien M Hendrickx & Vincent D Blondel, 2016. "Modelling Influence and Opinion Evolution in Online Collective Behaviour," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(6), pages 1-25, June.
    2. AskariSichani, Omid & Jalili, Mahdi, 2015. "Influence maximization of informed agents in social networks," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 254(C), pages 229-239.
    3. Serge Galam, 2007. "From 2000 Bush–Gore to 2006 Italian elections: voting at fifty-fifty and the contrarian effect," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 41(4), pages 579-589, August.
    4. Pluchino, Alessandro & Garofalo, Cesare & Rapisarda, Andrea & Spagano, Salvatore & Caserta, Maurizio, 2011. "Accidental politicians: How randomly selected legislators can improve parliament efficiency," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(21), pages 3944-3954.
    5. Pawel Sobkowicz, 2009. "Modelling Opinion Formation with Physics Tools: Call for Closer Link with Reality," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11.

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    Keywords

    Disordered systems; opinion dynamics;

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