IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wsi/ijfexx/v04y2017i02n03ns2424786317500372.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Style analysis with particle filtering and generalized simulated annealing

Author

Listed:
  • Takaya Fukui

    (Graduate School of Economics, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo 113-8654, Japan)

  • Seisho Sato

    (Graduate School of Economics, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo 113-8654, Japan)

  • Akihiko Takahashi

    (Graduate School of Economics, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo 113-8654, Japan)

Abstract

This paper proposes a new approach to style analysis of mutual funds in a general state space framework with particle filtering and generalized simulated annealing (GSA). Specifically, we regard the exposure of each style index as a latent state variable in a state space model and employ a Monte Carlo filter as a particle filtering method, where GSA is effectively applied to estimating unknown parameters.An empirical analysis using data of three Japanese equity mutual funds with six standard style indexes confirms the validity of our method. Moreover, we create fund-specific style indexes to further improve estimation in the analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Takaya Fukui & Seisho Sato & Akihiko Takahashi, 2017. "Style analysis with particle filtering and generalized simulated annealing," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(02n03), pages 1-29, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ijfexx:v:04:y:2017:i:02n03:n:s2424786317500372
    DOI: 10.1142/S2424786317500372
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S2424786317500372
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1142/S2424786317500372?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Laurens Swinkels & Pieter Van Der Sluis, 2006. "Return-based style analysis with time-varying exposures," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(6-7), pages 529-552.
    2. Jan Annaert & Geert Van Campenhout, 2007. "Time Variation in Mutual Fund Style Exposures," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 11(4), pages 633-661.
    3. Brown, Stephen J. & Goetzmann, William N., 1997. "Mutual fund styles," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 373-399, March.
    4. Takao Kobayashi & Seisho Sato & Akihiko Takahashi, 2005. "Style Analysis Based on a General State Space Model and Monte Carlo Filter (Revised in May 2007)," CARF F-Series CARF-F-032, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    5. Louis K. C. Chan & Hsiu-Lang Chen & Josef Lakonishok, 2002. "On Mutual Fund Investment Styles," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(5), pages 1407-1437.
    6. Grinblatt, Mark & Titman, Sheridan & Wermers, Russ, 1995. "Momentum Investment Strategies, Portfolio Performance, and Herding: A Study of Mutual Fund Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1088-1105, December.
    7. Higuchi, Tomoyuki, 1999. "Applications of quasi-periodic oscillation models to seasonal small count time series," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 281-301, May.
    8. Ferson, Wayne E & Schadt, Rudi W, 1996. "Measuring Fund Strategy and Performance in Changing Economic Conditions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 425-461, June.
    9. Pattarin, Francesco & Paterlini, Sandra & Minerva, Tommaso, 2004. "Clustering financial time series: an application to mutual funds style analysis," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 353-372, September.
    10. Takao Kobayashi & Seisho Sato & Akihiko Takahashi, 2005. "Style Analysis Based on a General State Space Model and Monte Carlo Filter," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-337, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    11. Akihiko Takahashi & Seisho Sato, 2001. "A Monte Carlo Filtering Approach for Estimating the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 53(1), pages 50-62, March.
    12. Tsallis, Constantino & Stariolo, Daniel A., 1996. "Generalized simulated annealing," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 233(1), pages 395-406.
    13. Fung, William & Hsieh, David A, 1997. "Empirical Characteristics of Dynamic Trading Strategies: The Case of Hedge Funds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 275-302.
    14. Busse, Jeffrey A, 1999. "Volatility Timing in Mutual Funds: Evidence from Daily Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(5), pages 1009-1041.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Seisho Sato & Akihiko Takahashi, 2018. "Term Structure Models During the Global Financial Crisis: A Parsimonious Text Mining Approach," Working Papers on Central Bank Communication 003, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    2. Souta Nakatani & Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Taiga Saito & Akihiko Takahashi, 2020. "Interest Rate Model with Investor Attitude and Text Mining (Published in IEEE Access)," CARF F-Series CARF-F-479, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    3. Souta Nakatani & Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Taiga Saito & Akihiko Takahashi, 2020. "Interest Rate Model with Investor Attitude and Text Mining," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1152, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    4. Souta Nakatani & Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Taiga Saito & Akihiko Takahashi, 2019. "Online Appendix for Interest Rate Model with Investor Attitude and Text Mining," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1136, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    5. Masafumi Nakano & Akihiko Takahashi & Soichiro Takahashi & Takami Tokioka, 2018. "On the Effect of Bank of Japan’s Outright Purchase on the JGB Yield Curve," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 25(1), pages 47-70, March.
    6. Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Seisho Sato & Akihiko Takahashi, 2019. "Term Structure Models During the Global Financial Crisis: A Parsimonious Text Mining Approach," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 26(3), pages 297-337, September.
    7. Jaydip Sen & Rajdeep Sen & Abhishek Dutta, 2021. "Machine Learning in Finance-Emerging Trends and Challenges," Papers 2110.11999, arXiv.org.
    8. Souta Nakatani & Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Taiga Saito & Akihiko Takahashi, 2019. "Online Appendix for Interest Rate Model with Investor Attitude and Text Mining," CARF F-Series CARF-F-470, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    9. Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Seisho Sato & Akihiko Takahashi, 2018. "Term Structure Models During the Global Financial Crisis: A Parsimonious Text Mining Approach(Forthcoming in "Asia-Pacific Financial Markets". )," CARF F-Series CARF-F-446, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    10. Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Seisho Sato & Akihiko Takahashi, 2018. "Term Structure Models During the Global Financial Crisis: A Parsimonious Text Mining Approach," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1101, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Takaya Fukui & Seisho Sato & Akihiko Takahashi, 2017. "This paper proposes a new approach to style analysis of mutual funds in a general state space framework with particle filtering and generalized simulated annealing (GSA). Speci cally, we regard the ex," CARF F-Series CARF-F-383, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    2. Takaya Fukui & Seisho Sato & Akihiko Takahashi, 2016. "Style Analysis with Particle Filtering and Generalized Simulated Annealing," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1010, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    3. Takao Kobayashi & Seisho Sato & Akihiko Takahashi, 2005. "Style Analysis Based on a General State Space Model and Monte Carlo Filter (Revised in May 2007)," CARF F-Series CARF-F-032, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    4. Takao Kobayashi & Seisho Sato & Akihiko Takahashi, 2005. "Style Analysis Based on a General State Space Model and Monte Carlo Filter," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-337, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    5. Bryant, Lonnie L., 2012. "“Down but Not Out” mutual fund manager turnover within fund families," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 569-593.
    6. Herrmann, Ulf & Scholz, Hendrik, 2013. "Short-term persistence in hybrid mutual fund performance: The role of style-shifting abilities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2314-2328.
    7. Jiang, George J. & Zaynutdinova, Gulnara R. & Zhang, Huacheng, 2021. "Stock-selection timing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    8. Jung‐Soon Shin & Minki Kim & Dongjun Oh & Tong Suk Kim, 2019. "Do hedge funds time market tail risk? Evidence from option‐implied tail risk," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 205-237, February.
    9. Zheng, Yao & Osmer, Eric & Zhang, Ruiyi, 2018. "Sentiment hedging: How hedge funds adjust their exposure to market sentiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 147-160.
    10. Andrew J. Patton & Tarun Ramadorai, 2013. "On the High-Frequency Dynamics of Hedge Fund Risk Exposures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(2), pages 597-635, April.
    11. François-Éric Racicot & Raymond Théoret, 2022. "Tracking market and non-traditional sources of risks in procyclical and countercyclical hedge fund strategies under extreme scenarios: a nonlinear VAR approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-56, December.
    12. S. Pavithra & Parthajit Kayal, 2023. "A Study of Investment Style Timing of Mutual Funds in India," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 30(1), pages 49-72, March.
    13. Baibing Li & Ji Luo & Kai†Hong Tee, 2017. "The Market Liquidity Timing Skills of Debt†oriented Hedge Funds," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 23(1), pages 32-54, January.
    14. Matthew Spiegel & Harry Mamaysky, 2001. "A Theory of Mutual Funds: Optimal Fund Objectives and Industry Organization," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2507, Yale School of Management.
    15. Cai, Biqing & Cheng, Tingting & Yan, Cheng, 2018. "Time-varying skills (versus luck) in U.S. active mutual funds and hedge funds," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 81-106.
    16. Cao, Charles & Chen, Yong & Liang, Bing & Lo, Andrew W., 2013. "Can hedge funds time market liquidity?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 493-516.
    17. Angelidis, Timotheos & Giamouridis, Daniel & Tessaromatis, Nikolaos, 2013. "Revisiting mutual fund performance evaluation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1759-1776.
    18. Horst, Jenke ter & Salganik, Galla, 2014. "Style chasing by hedge fund investors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 29-42.
    19. Bryant, Lonnie L. & Liu, Hao-Chen, 2011. "Mutual fund industry management structure, risk and the impacts to shareholders," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 101-115.
    20. Robert Kosowski & Allan Timmermann & Russ Wermers & Hal White, 2006. "Can Mutual Fund “Stars” Really Pick Stocks? New Evidence from a Bootstrap Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(6), pages 2551-2595, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wsi:ijfexx:v:04:y:2017:i:02n03:n:s2424786317500372. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tai Tone Lim (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.worldscientific.com/worldscinet/ijfe .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.