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How Much Could Article 6 Enhance Nationally Determined Contribution Ambition Toward Paris Agreement Goals Through Economic Efficiency?

Author

Listed:
  • JAMES EDMONDS

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, P.O. Box 999, Richland, WA 99352, USA)

  • SHA YU

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, P.O. Box 999, Richland, WA 99352, USA)

  • HAEWON MCJEON

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, P.O. Box 999, Richland, WA 99352, USA)

  • DIRK FORRISTER

    (International Emissions Trading Association, 24, rue Merle d’Aubigné, CH-1207 Geneva, Switzerland)

  • JOSEPH ALDY

    (Harvard Kennedy School, Harvard University, 79 John F. Kennedy Street, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA)

  • NATHAN HULTMAN

    (Center for Global Sustainability, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland, 3101 Van Munching Hall, College Park, MD 20742, USA)

  • RYNA CUI

    (Center for Global Sustainability, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland, 3101 Van Munching Hall, College Park, MD 20742, USA)

  • STEPHANIE WALDHOFF

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, P.O. Box 999, Richland, WA 99352, USA)

  • LEON CLARKE

    (Center for Global Sustainability, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland, 3101 Van Munching Hall, College Park, MD 20742, USA)

  • STEFANO DE CLARA

    (International Emissions Trading Association, 24, rue Merle d’Aubigné, CH-1207 Geneva, Switzerland5Energy and Resources Group, University of California Berkeley, 310 Barrows Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA)

  • CLAYTON MUNNINGS

    (International Emissions Trading Association, 24, rue Merle d’Aubigné, CH-1207 Geneva, Switzerland5Energy and Resources Group, University of California Berkeley, 310 Barrows Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA)

Abstract

The Paris Agreement of 2015 uses Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to achieve its goal to limit climate change to well below 2°C. Article 6 allows countries to cooperatively implement NDCs provided they do not double-count mitigation. We estimate that economic efficiency gains from cooperative implementation of existing NDC goals using Article 6 could reduce the cost of achieving NDC goals in 2030 to all parties by ∼$300×109, which if reinvested in additional emissions mitigation could add 9 billion tons CO2/year mitigation, beyond the 8 billion tons CO2/year currently pledged in 2030. We estimate that more than half of the 2030 gains could come from nature-based measures, but long-term potential for nature-based measures is more limited. How much or even if this economic potential can be realized is uncertain and will depend on both the rules and their implementation.

Suggested Citation

  • James Edmonds & Sha Yu & Haewon Mcjeon & Dirk Forrister & Joseph Aldy & Nathan Hultman & Ryna Cui & Stephanie Waldhoff & Leon Clarke & Stefano De Clara & Clayton Munnings, 2021. "How Much Could Article 6 Enhance Nationally Determined Contribution Ambition Toward Paris Agreement Goals Through Economic Efficiency?," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(02), pages 1-18, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ccexxx:v:12:y:2021:i:02:n:s201000782150007x
    DOI: 10.1142/S201000782150007X
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Strand,Jon, 2022. "Prospects for Markets for Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes under theParis Agreement," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10045, The World Bank.
    2. Piris-Cabezas, Pedro & Lubowski, Ruben N. & Leslie, Gabriela, 2023. "Estimating the potential of international carbon markets to increase global climate ambition," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    3. Vlad-Cosmin Bulai & Alexandra Horobet & Oana Cristina Popovici & Lucian Belascu & Sofia Adriana Dumitrescu, 2021. "A VaR-Based Methodology for Assessing Carbon Price Risk across European Union Economic Sectors," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-21, December.
    4. Jennifer Morris & Angelo Gurgel & Bryan K. Mignone & Haroon Kheshgi & Sergey Paltsev, 2024. "Mutual reinforcement of land-based carbon dioxide removal and international emissions trading in deep decarbonization scenarios," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.

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