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Comparing Climate Commitments: A Model-Based Analysis Of The Copenhagen Accord

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  • WARWICK J. MCKIBBIN

    (Research School of Economics, ANU College of Business and Economics, Arndt Building (25), The Australian National University, Canberra ACT 0200, Australia;
    The Brookings Institution, 1775, Massachusetts Ave, NW, Washington DC 20036, USA)

  • ADELE C. MORRIS

    (The Brookings Institution, 1775, Massachusetts Ave, NW, Washington DC 20036, USA)

  • PETER J. WILCOXEN

    (The Maxwell School, Syracuse University, Syracuse, NY 13244, USA;
    The Brookings Institution, Brookings 1775, Massachusetts Ave, NW, Washington DC 20036, USA)

Abstract

The political accord struck by leaders at the United Nations negotiations in Copenhagen in December 2009 allows participants to express their greenhouse gas commitments in a variety of ways. This paper compares the environmental and economic performance of these disparate commitments using the G-Cubed model of the global economy. We focus on fossil-fuel-relatedCO2and assume targets are achieved domestically. We show how different formulations make the same targets appear different in stringency and explore the Accord's spillover effects across countries. We find that commitments by Japan and Europe imply high carbon prices and relatively high GDP losses. The United States and China both have moderate carbon prices and moderate GDP effects. Australia and Eastern Europe/Former Soviet Union have relatively large GDP effects despite small or zero carbon prices because their terms of trade decline. OPEC suffers a large drop in GDP from a sharp decline in world oil demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Warwick J. Mckibbin & Adele C. Morris & Peter J. Wilcoxen, 2011. "Comparing Climate Commitments: A Model-Based Analysis Of The Copenhagen Accord," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(02), pages 79-103.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ccexxx:v:02:y:2011:i:02:n:s201000781100022x
    DOI: 10.1142/S201000781100022X
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    1. Jotzo, Frank, 2010. "Comparing the Copenhagen emissions targets," Working Papers 249378, Australian National University, Centre for Climate Economics & Policy.
    2. Warwick J. McKibbin & Adele Morris & Peter J. Wilcoxen & Yiyong Cai, 2009. "Consequences of alternative US cap-and-trade policies: Controlling both emissions and costs," CAMA Working Papers 2009-18, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    3. Rob Dellink & Gregory Briner & Christa Clapp, 2010. "Costs, Revenues, and Effectiveness of the Copenhagen Accord Emission Pledges for 2020," OECD Environment Working Papers 22, OECD Publishing.
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