IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wsi/afexxx/v09y2014i02ns2010495214400041.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Searching For Landmines In Equity Markets

Author

Listed:
  • BI-JUAN CHANG

    (Graduate Institute of International Business, National Taiwan University, No. 1, Sec. 4, Roosevelt Road, Taipei City 106, Taiwan (ROC))

  • JOW-RAN CHANG

    (Department and Graduate Institute of Quantitative Finance, National Tsing Hua University, 101, Section 2, Kuang Fu Road, Hsinchu, 300, Taiwan (ROC))

  • MAO-WEI HUNG

    (Graduate Institute of International Business, National Taiwan University, No. 1, Sec. 4, Roosevelt Road, Taipei City 106, Taiwan (ROC))

Abstract

Distressed firms in equity markets are like landmines in the battlefields due to their undetectability and devastating effects. This paper is concerned with distressed firms forecasting by the distance-to-default (DTD) and rare event logit (REL) models via public available data. Comparing these two models by cumulative accuracy profiles (CAP) and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, we conclude that the REL model performs better than the DTD model. The data contains US-listed firms on the S&P 500 for the period January 1986 to December 2012, including 2138 companies and 271,912 firm months, with 444 distressed firms. We set the dynamic thresholds as the last 6% of firms based on the historical cross-section distress rates. Upon Bayesian posterior probability examination, the REL model shows about 40–60% affinity with S&P Domestic Long Term Issuer Credit Rating records on average, and the rate increases to 70% in some situations. We conclude that the REL model can be a good warning indicator of distress in firms at least three years ahead.

Suggested Citation

  • Bi-Juan Chang & Jow-Ran Chang & Mao-Wei Hung, 2014. "Searching For Landmines In Equity Markets," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(02), pages 1-24.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:afexxx:v:09:y:2014:i:02:n:s2010495214400041
    DOI: 10.1142/S2010495214400041
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S2010495214400041
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1142/S2010495214400041?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cole, Rebel A. & Wu, Qiongbing, 2009. "Is hazard or probit more accurate in predicting financial distress? Evidence from U.S. bank failures," MPRA Paper 24688, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Aug 2010.
    2. Jens Hilscher & Mungo Wilson, 2011. "Credit ratings and credit risk," Working Papers 31, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
    3. van Damme, E.E.C., 2008. "Verdwaald tussen 'ja, tenzij' en 'nee, mits'," Other publications TiSEM 29967477-8e71-4257-abb6-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    4. Chou, Hsin-I & Li, Hui & Yin, Xiangkang, 2010. "The effects of financial distress and capital structure on the work effort of outside directors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 300-312, June.
    5. Kotter, Jason & Lel, Ugur, 2011. "Friends or foes? Target selection decisions of sovereign wealth funds and their consequences," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 360-381, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang Wenge, 2018. "Board Independence of Listed Companies in the US and China," Asian Journal of Law and Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(3), pages 1-21, December.
    2. Arouri, Mohamed & Boubaker, Sabri & Grais, Wafik & Grira, Jocelyn, 2018. "Rationality or politics? The color of black gold money," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 62-76.
    3. Ang, James & Knill, April & Mauck, Nathan, 2017. "Cross-border opportunity sets: An international empirical study based on ownership types," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-26.
    4. Ahsan Habib & Mabel D' Costa & Hedy Jiaying Huang & Md. Borhan Uddin Bhuiyan & Li Sun, 2020. "Determinants and consequences of financial distress: review of the empirical literature," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(S1), pages 1023-1075, April.
    5. Gangi, Francesco & Meles, Antonio & Mustilli, Mario & Graziano, Domenico & Varrone, Nicola, 2019. "Do investment determinants and effects vary across sovereign wealth fund categories? A firm-level analysis," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 438-457.
    6. Aramonte, Sirio & Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad R. & Shugarman, Justin K., 2019. "Institutions and return predictability in oil-exporting countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 14-26.
    7. Ciarlone, Alessio & Miceli, Valeria, 2016. "Escaping financial crises? Macro evidence from sovereign wealth funds' investment behaviour," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 169-196.
    8. Feiran Dong & Yongzhen Xie & Linjun Cao, 2019. "Board Power Hierarchy, Corporate Mission, and Green Performance," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-27, September.
    9. Youngtae Yoo & Jaehong Lee & Jinho Chang, 2014. "Distinctive Features of BBB- and BB-Graded Firms Using Earnings Management and Conservatism: Evidence from the Korean Market," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(01), pages 1-31.
    10. Narjess Boubakri & Veljko Fotak & Omrane Guedhami & Yukihiro Yasuda, 2023. "The heterogeneous and evolving roles of sovereign wealth funds: Issues, challenges, and research agenda," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 6(3), pages 241-252, September.
    11. Alessio Ciarlone & Valeria Miceli, 2014. "Are Sovereign Wealth Funds contrarian investors?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 972, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. Carpantier, J.-F. & Vermeulen, W.N., 2018. "Emergence of sovereign wealth funds," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 1-21.
    13. Dariusz Urban, 2016. "The Investment Attractiveness of Companies Listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange to Sovereign Wealth Funds," Acta Oeconomica, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 66(2), pages 333-350, June.
    14. Harald Hau & Sam Langfield & David Marques-Ibanez, 2013. "Bank ratings: what determines their quality? [Bank risk during the financial crisis: do business models matter?]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 28(74), pages 289-333.
    15. Chou, Hsin-I & Chung, Huimin & Yin, Xiangkang, 2013. "Attendance of board meetings and company performance: Evidence from Taiwan," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4157-4171.
    16. I. Anthopoulos & C. Pitelis & C. Liakou, 2016. "The Nature, Performance and Economic Impact of Sovereign Wealth Funds," Working papers wpaper135, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
    17. Alvaro Cuervo-Cazurra & Anna Grosman & Geoffrey T. Wood, 2023. "Cross-country variations in sovereign wealth funds’ transparency," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 6(3), pages 306-329, September.
    18. Debarsy, Nicolas & Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Kerkour, Malik, 2017. "Sovereign wealth funds’ cross-border investments: Assessing the role of country-level drivers and spatial competition," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 68-87.
    19. Dreassi, Alberto & Miani, Stefano & Paltrinieri, Andrea, 2017. "Sovereign pension and social security reserve funds: A portfolio analysis," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 43-53.
    20. Aris Wahyu Raharjo, 2022. "Evolving Sovereign Wealth Fund under Infrastructure Funding Scarcity: A Literature Study ," GATR Journals jber222, Global Academy of Training and Research (GATR) Enterprise.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Distance-to-default (DTD) model; rare event logit (REL) model; cumulative accuracy profiles (CAP) curve; receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve; G17; G33;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wsi:afexxx:v:09:y:2014:i:02:n:s2010495214400041. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tai Tone Lim (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.worldscinet.com/afe/afe.shtml .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.