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Modeling Belief Change In A Population Using Explanatory Coherence

Author

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  • BRUCE EDMONDS

    (Centre for Policy Modelling, Manchester Metropolitan University, Manchester M15 6BH, UK)

Abstract

A simulation model that represents belief change within a population of agents who are connected by a social network is presented based on Thagard's theory of explanatory coherence. In this model there are a fixed number of represented beliefs, each of which are either held or not by each agent. These are conceived of existing against a background of a large set of (unrepresented) shared beliefs. These beliefs are to different extents coherent with each other — this is modeled using a coherence function from possible sets of core beliefs to [-1, 1]. The social influence is achieved through gaining of a belief across a social link. Beliefs can be lost by being dropped from an agent's store. Both of these processes happen with a probability related to the change in coherence that would result in an agent's belief store. A resulting measured "opinion" can be retrieved in a number of ways, here as a weighted sum of a pattern of the core beliefs — opinion is thus an outcome and not directly processed by agents. This model suggests hypotheses about group opinion dynamics that differ from that of many established models.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruce Edmonds, 2012. "Modeling Belief Change In A Population Using Explanatory Coherence," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(06), pages 1-15.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:acsxxx:v:15:y:2012:i:06:n:s0219525912500853
    DOI: 10.1142/S0219525912500853
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    Cited by:

    1. Bruce Edmonds, 2020. "Co-developing beliefs and social influence networks—towards understanding socio-cognitive processes like Brexit," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 491-515, April.
    2. Wang, Mengyao & Pan, Qiuhui & He, Mingfeng, 2020. "Individuals with the firm heart are conducive to cooperation in social dilemma," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).

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