IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/wirecc/v6y2015i1p93-112.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A critical review of global decarbonization scenarios: what do they tell us about feasibility?

Author

Listed:
  • Peter J. Loftus
  • Armond M. Cohen
  • Jane C. S. Long
  • Jesse D. Jenkins

Abstract

Dozens of scenarios are published each year outlining paths to a low carbon global energy system. To provide insight into the relative feasibility of these global decarbonization scenarios, we examine 17 scenarios constructed using a diverse range of techniques and introduce a set of empirical benchmarks that can be applied to compare and assess the pace of energy system transformation entailed by each scenario. In particular, we quantify the implied rate of change in energy and carbon intensity and low‐carbon technology deployment rates for each scenario and benchmark each against historical experience and industry projections, where available. In addition, we examine how each study addresses the key technical, economic, and societal factors that may constrain the pace of low‐carbon energy transformation. We find that all of the scenarios envision historically unprecedented improvements in energy intensity, while normalized low‐carbon capacity deployment rates are broadly consistent with historical experience. Three scenarios that constrain the available portfolio of low‐carbon options by excluding some technologies (nuclear and carbon capture and storage) a priori are outliers, requiring much faster low‐carbon capacity deployment and energy intensity improvements. Finally, all of the studies present comparatively little detail on strategies to decarbonize the industrial and transportation sectors, and most give superficial treatment to relevant constraints on energy system transformations. To be reliable guides for policymaking, scenarios such as these need to be supplemented by more detailed analyses realistically addressing the key constraints on energy system transformation. WIREs Clim Change 2015, 6:93–112. doi: 10.1002/wcc.324 This article is categorized under: Integrated Assessment of Climate Change > Integrated Scenario Development The Carbon Economy and Climate Mitigation > Decarbonizing Energy and/or Reducing Demand

Suggested Citation

  • Peter J. Loftus & Armond M. Cohen & Jane C. S. Long & Jesse D. Jenkins, 2015. "A critical review of global decarbonization scenarios: what do they tell us about feasibility?," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(1), pages 93-112, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:wirecc:v:6:y:2015:i:1:p:93-112
    DOI: 10.1002/wcc.324
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.324
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/wcc.324?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Shahbaz & Vassilios G. Papavassiliou & Amine Lahiani & David Roubaud, 2023. "Are we moving towards decarbonisation of the global economy? Lessons from the distant past to the present," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 2620-2634, July.
    2. Gaies, Brahim & Nakhli, Mohamed Sahbi & Sahut, Jean-Michel, 2022. "What are the effects of economic globalization on CO2 emissions in MENA countries?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    3. Tobias Hübner, 2020. "Small-Scale Modelling of Individual Greenhouse Gas Abatement Measures in Industry," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-43, April.
    4. Wenxiu Wang & Yuejun Luo & Daiqing Zhao, 2023. "The Power Transition under the Interaction of Different Systems—A Case Study of the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-22, March.
    5. King, Carey W., 2020. "An integrated biophysical and economic modeling framework for long-term sustainability analysis: the HARMONEY model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    6. Cotterman, Turner & Small, Mitchell J. & Wilson, Stephen & Abdulla, Ahmed & Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle, 2021. "Applying risk tolerance and socio-technical dynamics for more realistic energy transition pathways," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 291(C).
    7. Oei, Pao-Yu & Burandt, Thorsten & Hainsch, Karlo & Löffler, Konstantin & Kemfert, Claudia, 2020. "Lessons from Modeling 100% Renewable Scenarios Using GENeSYS-MOD," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 103-120.
    8. Cotterman, Turner, 2019. "Why Rapid and Deep Decarbonization isn’t Simple: Linking Bottom-up Socio-technical Decision-making Insights with Top-down Macroeconomic Analyses," Conference papers 333088, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    9. Andrei, Mariana & Rohdin, Patrik & Thollander, Patrik & Wallin, Johanna & Tångring, Magnus, 2024. "Exploring a decarbonization framework for a Swedish automotive paint shop," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    10. He, Jianjian & Yang, Yi & Liao, Zhongju & Xu, Anqi & Fang, Kai, 2022. "Linking SDG 7 to assess the renewable energy footprint of nations by 2030," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 317(C).
    11. Papadis, Elisa & Tsatsaronis, George, 2020. "Challenges in the decarbonization of the energy sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    12. Aghahosseini, Arman & Solomon, A.A. & Breyer, Christian & Pregger, Thomas & Simon, Sonja & Strachan, Peter & Jäger-Waldau, Arnulf, 2023. "Energy system transition pathways to meet the global electricity demand for ambitious climate targets and cost competitiveness," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    13. Deleidi, Matteo & Mazzucato, Mariana & Semieniuk, Gregor, 2020. "Neither crowding in nor out: Public direct investment mobilising private investment into renewable electricity projects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    14. Patrick Moriarty & Damon Honnery, 2020. "Feasibility of a 100% Global Renewable Energy System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-16, October.
    15. Laslett, Dean & Carter, Craig & Creagh, Chris & Jennings, Philip, 2017. "A large-scale renewable electricity supply system by 2030: Solar, wind, energy efficiency, storage and inertia for the South West Interconnected System (SWIS) in Western Australia," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 713-731.
    16. Raza, Muhammad Yousaf & Lin, Boqiang, 2024. "Energy transition, carbon trade and sustainable electricity generation in Pakistan," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 372(C).
    17. Bromley-Dulfano, Isaac & Florez, Julian & Craig, Michael T., 2021. "Reliability benefits of wide-area renewable energy planning across the Western United States," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 1487-1499.
    18. Geels, F.W. & McMeekin, A. & Pfluger, B., 2020. "Socio-technical scenarios as a methodological tool to explore social and political feasibility in low-carbon transitions: Bridging computer models and the multi-level perspective in UK electricity gen," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    19. Hansen, T.A., 2022. "Stranded assets and reduced profits: Analyzing the economic underpinnings of the fossil fuel industry's resistance to climate stabilization," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:wirecc:v:6:y:2015:i:1:p:93-112. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1002/(ISSN)1757-7799 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.