IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/sustdv/v7y1999i3p140-150.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Alternative scenarios of social development: is analytical sustainability policy analysis possible? How?

Author

Listed:
  • Jari Kaivo-oja

    (Turku School of Economics and Business Administration, Finland)

Abstract

In the article some alternative scenarios of social development are presented and discussed in detail. The following scenarios are discussed: (i) the Deep Ecology Scenario, (ii) the Strong Sustainable Development Scenario, (iii) the Weak Sustainable Development Scenario, (iv) the Boomsday Scenario, (v) the Doomsday Scenario and (vi) the World Bank 'Policy Tunnel' Scenario. In the article it is noted that the environmental EKC hypothesis can be connected theoretically to the Boomsday Scenario and loosely to the World Bank 'Policy Tunnel' Scenario. On the basis of scenario analysis, it is pointed out that sustainable development is not a conflict-free concept because the criteria of sustainability (environmental sustainability, economic efficiency and social equality) cannot be simultaneously met in most of the scenarios analysed. Global strategies that are based on the general, simple concepts of sustainability can be even harmful for developing societies. A useful approach for the sustainable development policy formation is sustainability thinking that is based on the analytical positioning of the current situation. The strategic guidelines of the new positioning framework are presented in the article. On the basis of theory-based scenario analysis it is noted that the situation-based framework may help international development agencies, as well as well national and local governments, in the formation of analytical environmental policy strategies. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Jari Kaivo-oja, 1999. "Alternative scenarios of social development: is analytical sustainability policy analysis possible? How?," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(3), pages 140-150.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:sustdv:v:7:y:1999:i:3:p:140-150
    DOI: 10.1002/(SICI)1099-1719(199908)7:3<140::AID-SD109>3.0.CO;2-I
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gene M. Grossman & Alan B. Krueger, 1995. "Economic Growth and the Environment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(2), pages 353-377.
    2. Taylor, Lance, 1996. "Sustainable development: An introduction," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 215-225, February.
    3. Stern, David I. & Common, Michael S. & Barbier, Edward B., 1996. "Economic growth and environmental degradation: The environmental Kuznets curve and sustainable development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1151-1160, July.
    4. Munasinghe, Mohan, 1995. "Making economic growth more sustainable," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 121-124, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Veronika Svatošová & Josef Smolík, 2015. "The Scenarios of Social Policy Development in the Czech Republic," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 63(5), pages 1749-1767.
    2. Joachim H. Spangenberg, 2007. "Integrated scenarios for assessing biodiversity risks," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 343-356.
    3. Jari Kaivo-oja, 2019. "A Long-Run Reflections on Sustainable Development Policies and Solutions," International Journal of Environmental Sciences & Natural Resources, Juniper Publishers Inc., vol. 18(3), pages 84-87, April.
    4. Marcus Sutcliffe & Paul Hooper & Ros Howell, 2008. "Can eco-footprinting analysis be used successfully to encourage more sustainable behaviour at the household level?," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(1), pages 1-16.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rothman, Dale S., 1998. "Environmental Kuznets curves--real progress or passing the buck?: A case for consumption-based approaches," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 177-194, May.
    2. Valeria Costantini & Chiara Martini, 2010. "A Modified Environmental Kuznets Curve for sustainable development assessment using panel data," International Journal of Global Environmental Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 10(1/2), pages 84-122.
    3. Theodore Panayotou, 2000. "Economic Growth and the Environment," CID Working Papers 56A, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    4. G. Mythili & Shibashis Mukherjee, 2011. "Examining Environmental Kuznets Curve for river effluents in India," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 627-640, June.
    5. George Halkos & Iacovos Psarianos, 2016. "Exploring the effect of including the environment in the neoclassical growth model," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 18(3), pages 339-358, July.
    6. Andreoni, James & Levinson, Arik, 2001. "The simple analytics of the environmental Kuznets curve," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 269-286, May.
    7. Karp, Larry S. & Liu, Xuemei, 1998. "Valuing Tradeable Co2 Permits For Oecd Countries," CUDARE Working Papers 25054, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    8. ITALO ARBULÚ VILLANUEVA Author-Workplace-Name: Málaga-Webb & Asociados, 2012. "Introducing Institutional Variables In The Environmental Kuznets Curve (Ekc): A Latin American Study," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1, pages 71-81, March.
    9. Costantini, Valeria & Monni, Salvatore, 2008. "Environment, human development and economic growth," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(4), pages 867-880, February.
    10. Md Danesh Miah & Md Farhad Hossain Masum & Masao Koike & Shalina Akther & Nur Muhammed, 2011. "Environmental Kuznets Curve: the case of Bangladesh for waste emission and suspended particulate matter," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 59-66, March.
    11. Luzzati, T. & Orsini, M., 2009. "Investigating the energy-environmental Kuznets curve," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 291-300.
    12. Matias Piaggio & Emilio Padilla & Carolina Roman, 2015. "The long-run relationshiop between C02 emissions and economic activity in a small open economy: Uruguay 1882-2010," Working Papers wpdea1506, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
    13. Sabuj Kumar Mandal & Devleena Chakravarty, 2017. "Role of energy in estimating turning point of Environmental Kuznets Curve: an econometric analysis of the existing studies," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 19(2), pages 387-401, October.
    14. Raghbendra Jha & John Whalley, 2001. "The Environmental Regime in Developing Countries," NBER Chapters, in: Behavioral and Distributional Effects of Environmental Policy, pages 217-250, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Fodha, Mouez & Zaghdoud, Oussama, 2010. "Economic growth and pollutant emissions in Tunisia: An empirical analysis of the environmental Kuznets curve," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 1150-1156, February.
    16. Cerdeira Bento, João Paulo, 2014. "The determinants of CO2 emissions: empirical evidence from Italy," MPRA Paper 59166, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. He, Jie & Richard, Patrick, 2010. "Environmental Kuznets curve for CO2 in Canada," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(5), pages 1083-1093, March.
    18. Bi Goli Jean Jacques Iritie, 2015. "Economic Growth and Biodiversity: An Overview Conservation Policies in Africa," Journal of Sustainable Development, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(2), pages 196-196, February.
    19. Stern, David I., 2014. "The Environmental Kuznets Curve: A Primer," Working Papers 249424, Australian National University, Centre for Climate Economics & Policy.
    20. Kangyin Dong & Xiucheng Dong & Qingzhe Jiang, 2020. "How renewable energy consumption lower global CO2 emissions? Evidence from countries with different income levels," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(6), pages 1665-1698, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:sustdv:v:7:y:1999:i:3:p:140-150. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1002/(ISSN)1099-1719 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.