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The Event: An Underexamined Risk Concept

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  • Ted W. Yellman

Abstract

Some of the terms used in risk assessment and management are poorly and even contradictorily defined. One such term is “event,” which arguably describes the most basic of all risk‐related concepts. The author cites two contemporary textbook interpretations of “event” that he contends are incorrect and misleading. He then examines the concept of an event in A. N. Kolmogorov's probability axioms and in several more‐current textbooks. Those concepts are found to be too narrow for risk assessments and inconsistent with the actual usage of “event” by risk analysts. The author goes on to define and advocate linguistic definitions of events (as opposed to mathematical definitions)—definitions constructed from natural language. He argues that they should be recognized for what they are: the de facto primary method of defining events.

Suggested Citation

  • Ted W. Yellman, 2016. "The Event: An Underexamined Risk Concept," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(6), pages 1072-1078, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:36:y:2016:i:6:p:1072-1078
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12506
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stanley Kaplan & B. John Garrick, 1981. "On The Quantitative Definition of Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(1), pages 11-27, March.
    2. Terje Aven, 2012. "Foundational Issues in Risk Assessment and Risk Management," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(10), pages 1647-1656, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Serinaldi & Chris G. Kilsby, 2017. "A Blueprint for Full Collective Flood Risk Estimation: Demonstration for European River Flooding," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(10), pages 1958-1976, October.

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