IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/riskan/v34y2014i8p1391-1400.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Scenario‐Based Evaluation of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus and the Hajj

Author

Listed:
  • Lauren M. Gardner
  • David Rey
  • Anita E. Heywood
  • Renin Toms
  • James Wood
  • S. Travis Waller
  • C. Raina MacIntyre

Abstract

Between April 2012 and June 2014, 820 laboratory‐confirmed cases of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS‐CoV) have been reported in the Arabian Peninsula, Europe, North Africa, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and the United States. The observed epidemiology is different to SARS, which showed a classic epidemic curve and was over in eight months. The much longer persistence of MERS‐CoV in the population, with a lower reproductive number, some evidence of human‐to‐human transmission but an otherwise sporadic pattern, is difficult to explain. Using available epidemiological data, we implemented mathematical models to explore the transmission dynamics of MERS‐CoV in the context of mass gatherings such as the Hajj pilgrimage, and found a discrepancy between the observed and expected epidemiology. The fact that no epidemic occurred in returning Hajj pilgrims in either 2012 or 2013 contradicts the long persistence of the virus in human populations. The explanations for this discrepancy include an ongoing, repeated nonhuman/sporadic source, a large proportion of undetected or unreported human‐to‐human cases, or a combination of the two. Furthermore, MERS‐CoV is occurring in a region that is a major global transport hub and hosts significant mass gatherings, making it imperative to understand the source and means of the yet unexplained and puzzling ongoing persistence of the virus in the human population.

Suggested Citation

  • Lauren M. Gardner & David Rey & Anita E. Heywood & Renin Toms & James Wood & S. Travis Waller & C. Raina MacIntyre, 2014. "A Scenario‐Based Evaluation of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus and the Hajj," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(8), pages 1391-1400, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:34:y:2014:i:8:p:1391-1400
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12253
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12253
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/risa.12253?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > MERS

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jiraporn Lamwong & Puntani Pongsumpun & I-Ming Tang & Napasool Wongvanich, 2022. "Vaccination’s Role in Combating the Omicron Variant Outbreak in Thailand: An Optimal Control Approach," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(20), pages 1-29, October.
    2. Xin Chen & Abrar A. Chughtai & Chandini R. MacIntyre, 2020. "Application of a Risk Analysis Tool to Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS‐CoV) Outbreak in Saudi Arabia," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(5), pages 915-925, May.
    3. C. Raina MacIntyre, 2014. "The discrepant epidemiology of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV)," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 383-390, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:34:y:2014:i:8:p:1391-1400. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1539-6924 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.