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The Development of Risk Analysis: A Personal Perspective

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  • Richard Wilson

Abstract

This article reflects on my experiences observing and participating in the development of risk analysis for environmental and health hazards since the 1970s with emphasis on its critical role in informing decisions with potentially high consequences, even for very low probability events once ignored or simply viewed as “acts of God.” I discuss how modern society wants to protect itself from hazards with limited or no immediate historical precedent such that prediction and protective actions must depend on models that offer varying degrees of reliability. I believe that we must invest in understanding risks and risk models to ensure health in the future and protect ourselves from large challenges, including climate change, whether anthropogenic or otherwise, terrorism, and perhaps even cosmic change.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Wilson, 2012. "The Development of Risk Analysis: A Personal Perspective," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(12), pages 2010-2019, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:32:y:2012:i:12:p:2010-2019
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01819.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul Slovic, 1993. "Perceived Risk, Trust, and Democracy," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 13(6), pages 675-682, December.
    2. Lorenz R. Rhomberg & Scott K. Wolff, 1998. "Empirical Scaling of Single Oral Lethal Doses Across Mammalian Species Based on a Large Database," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(6), pages 741-753, December.
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