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A Method for Computing the Fraction of Attributable Risk Related to Climate Damages

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  • Carlo C. Jaeger
  • Jette Krause
  • Armin Haas
  • Rupert Klein
  • Klaus Hasselmann

Abstract

The recent decision of the U.S. Supreme Court on the regulation of CO2 emissions from new motor vehicles(1) shows the need for a robust methodology to evaluate the fraction of attributable risk from such emissions. The methodology must enable decisionmakers to reach practically relevant conclusions on the basis of expert assessments the decisionmakers see as an expression of research in progress, rather than as knowledge consolidated beyond any reasonable doubt.(2,3,4) This article presents such a methodology and demonstrates its use for the Alpine heat wave of 2003. In a Bayesian setting, different expert assessments on temperature trends and volatility can be formalized as probability distributions, with initial weights (priors) attached to them. By Bayesian learning, these weights can be adjusted in the light of data. The fraction of heat wave risk attributable to anthropogenic climate change can then be computed from the posterior distribution. We show that very different priors consistently lead to the result that anthropogenic climate change has contributed more than 90% to the probability of the Alpine summer heat wave in 2003. The present method can be extended to a wide range of applications where conclusions must be drawn from divergent assessments under uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlo C. Jaeger & Jette Krause & Armin Haas & Rupert Klein & Klaus Hasselmann, 2008. "A Method for Computing the Fraction of Attributable Risk Related to Climate Damages," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(4), pages 815-823, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:28:y:2008:i:4:p:815-823
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01070.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tol, Richard S. J. & Verheyen, Roda, 2004. "State responsibility and compensation for climate change damages--a legal and economic assessment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1109-1130, June.
    2. Marc Poumadère & Claire Mays & Sophie Le Mer & Russell Blong, 2005. "The 2003 Heat Wave in France: Dangerous Climate Change Here and Now," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(6), pages 1483-1494, December.
    3. Myles R. Allen & Richard Lord, 2004. "The blame game," Nature, Nature, vol. 432(7017), pages 551-552, December.
    4. Christoph Schär & Gerd Jendritzky, 2004. "Hot news from summer 2003," Nature, Nature, vol. 432(7017), pages 559-560, December.
    5. Peter A. Stott & D. A. Stone & M. R. Allen, 2004. "Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003," Nature, Nature, vol. 432(7017), pages 610-614, December.
    6. R. Sari Kovats & Diarmid Campbell‐Lendrum & Franziska Matthies, 2005. "Climate Change and Human Health: Estimating Avoidable Deaths and Disease," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(6), pages 1409-1418, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Travis William Reynolds & Ann Bostrom & Daniel Read & M. Granger Morgan, 2010. "Now What Do People Know About Global Climate Change? Survey Studies of Educated Laypeople," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(10), pages 1520-1538, October.
    2. Stecher, Michael & Baumgärtner, Stefan, 2024. "Quantifying agents’ causal responsibility in dynamical systems," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).

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