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Is Probability the Only Coherent Approach to Uncertainty?

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  • Mark Colyvan

Abstract

In this article, I discuss an argument that purports to prove that probability theory is the only sensible means of dealing with uncertainty. I show that this argument can succeed only if some rather controversial assumptions about the nature of uncertainty are accepted. I discuss these assumptions and provide reasons for rejecting them. I also present examples of what I take to be non‐probabilistic uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Colyvan, 2008. "Is Probability the Only Coherent Approach to Uncertainty?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(3), pages 645-652, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:28:y:2008:i:3:p:645-652
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01058.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexander Gutfraind, 2023. "Risk-reducing design and operations toolkit: 90 strategies for managing risk and uncertainty in decision problems," Papers 2309.03133, arXiv.org.
    2. Hassina Benaoudia & Amar Aissani, 2023. "Non-Parametric Test for Decreasing Uncertainty of Residual Life Distribution (DURL)," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-17, October.
    3. Max Boholm, 2019. "Risk and Quantification: A Linguistic Study," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(6), pages 1243-1261, June.
    4. Sirio Cividino & Gianluca Egidi & Ilaria Zambon & Andrea Colantoni, 2019. "Evaluating the Degree of Uncertainty of Research Activities in Industry 4.0," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-21, September.
    5. Mikko V. Pohjola & Pasi Pohjola & Marko Tainio & Jouni T. Tuomisto, 2013. "Perspectives to Performance of Environment and Health Assessments and Models—From Outputs to Outcomes?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-22, June.

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