IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jftint/v11y2019i9p196-d266242.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Evaluating the Degree of Uncertainty of Research Activities in Industry 4.0

Author

Listed:
  • Sirio Cividino

    (Department of Agriculture, University of Udine, Via delle Scienze 206, I-33100 Udine, Italy
    Centro Ricerche e Studi dei Laghi, Corso di Porta Vittoria 31, I-20122 Milano, Italy)

  • Gianluca Egidi

    (Centro Ricerche e Studi dei Laghi, Corso di Porta Vittoria 31, I-20122 Milano, Italy
    SEA TUSCIA, Tuscia University, Via San Camillo de Lellis, 01100 Viterbo, Italy)

  • Ilaria Zambon

    (Department of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences (DAFNE), Tuscia University, Via San Camillo de Lellis, snc, I-01100 Viterbo, Italy)

  • Andrea Colantoni

    (Department of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences (DAFNE), Tuscia University, Via San Camillo de Lellis, snc, I-01100 Viterbo, Italy)

Abstract

Research and development (R&D) are always oriented towards new discoveries, based on original terms or hypotheses, and their concluding outcomes are often uncertain. The present work focused on the degree of uncertainty for R&D activities. In fact, uncertainty makes it difficult to quantify the time and resources needed to achieve a final outcome, create a work plan and budget, and finalize the resulting “innovative” products or services that could be transferred or exchanged in a specific market. The present work attempts to indicate the degree of uncertainty of the research activities developed by a set of firms. The method used aimed to quantify the five criteria defined by the Manual of Frascati. Through the creation of an uncertainty cloud, a cone of uncertainty was defined following an approach based on project management. The evaluation grid was characterized by the decomposition of the different variables divided into quartiles, which allowed for the detection of the evolution of the project and each of its component. The ancillary objective aim was to also observe the development degree of these industries towards a framework of Industry 4.0.

Suggested Citation

  • Sirio Cividino & Gianluca Egidi & Ilaria Zambon & Andrea Colantoni, 2019. "Evaluating the Degree of Uncertainty of Research Activities in Industry 4.0," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-21, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jftint:v:11:y:2019:i:9:p:196-:d:266242
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1999-5903/11/9/196/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1999-5903/11/9/196/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael T. Pich & Christoph H. Loch & Arnoud De Meyer, 2002. "On Uncertainty, Ambiguity, and Complexity in Project Management," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 48(8), pages 1008-1023, August.
    2. Sara Rajabi Hamedani & Mauro Villarini & Andrea Colantoni & Michele Moretti & Enrico Bocci, 2018. "Life Cycle Performance of Hydrogen Production via Agro-Industrial Residue Gasification—A Small Scale Power Plant Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-19, March.
    3. Sven-Vegard Buer & Jan Ola Strandhagen & Felix T. S. Chan, 2018. "The link between Industry 4.0 and lean manufacturing: mapping current research and establishing a research agenda," International Journal of Production Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(8), pages 2924-2940, April.
    4. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    5. Mark Colyvan, 2008. "Is Probability the Only Coherent Approach to Uncertainty?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(3), pages 645-652, June.
    6. Matteo Lucchese & Leopoldo Nascia & Mario Pianta, 2016. "Industrial policy and technology in Italy," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 43(3), pages 233-260, September.
    7. Steven J. Kachelmeier & Bernhard E. Reichert & Michael G. Williamson, 2008. "Measuring and Motivating Quantity, Creativity, or Both," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(2), pages 341-373, May.
    8. Ilaria Zambon & Andrea Colantoni & Massimo Cecchini & Enrico Maria Mosconi, 2018. "Rethinking Sustainability within the Viticulture Realities Integrating Economy, Landscape and Energy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-13, January.
    9. Giuseppe Dari-Mattiacci & Bruno Deffains, 2007. "Uncertainty of Law and the Legal Process," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 163(4), pages 627-656, December.
    10. Alessandro Muscio & Andrea Ciffolilli, 2020. "What drives the capacity to integrate Industry 4.0 technologies? Evidence from European R&D projects," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 169-183, February.
    11. Volker Stein & Arnd Wiedemann, 2016. "Risk governance: conceptualization, tasks, and research agenda," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 86(8), pages 813-836, November.
    12. Costantino Thanos, 2017. "Research Data Reusability: Conceptual Foundations, Barriers and Enabling Technologies," Publications, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-19, January.
    13. Roberto Esposti & Pierpaolo Pierani, 2003. "Building the Knowledge Stock: Lags, Depreciation, and Uncertainty in R&D Investment and Link with Productivity Growth," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 33-58, January.
    14. Bollinger, Lynn & Hope, Katherine & Utterback, James M., 1983. "A review of literature and hypotheses on new technology-based firms," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-14, February.
    15. Matteo Lucchese & Leopoldo Nascia & Mario Pianta, 2016. "Industrial and technological policy. The case for Italy," Argomenti, University of Urbino Carlo Bo, Department of Economics, Society & Politics, vol. 4(4), pages 1-26, May-Augus.
    16. Mariko Nishizawa & Ortwin Renn, 2006. "Responding Public Demand for Assurance of Genetically Modified Crops: Case from Japan," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 41-56, January.
    17. Annalisa Caloffi & Marco Bellandi, 2017. "Enterprise and innovation policy in Italy: an overview of the recent facts," Revue d'économie industrielle, De Boeck Université, vol. 0(2), pages 129-141.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Arbolino, Roberta & Yigitcanlar, Tan & L’Abbate, Pasqua & Ioppolo, Giuseppe, 2019. "Effective growth policymaking: Estimating provincial territorial development potentials," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 313-321.
    2. Wen, Jun & Zhang, Sen & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2022. "Legal origins and innovation: Global evidence," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    3. Arbolino, Roberta & Boffardi, Raffaele & Lanuzza, Francesco & Ioppolo, Giuseppe, 2018. "Monitoring and evaluation of regional industrial sustainability: Evidence from Italian regions," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 420-428.
    4. Nicola Cassandro & Marco Centra & Dario Guarascio & Piero Esposito, 2021. "What drives employment–unemployment transitions? Evidence from Italian task-based data," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(3), pages 1109-1147, October.
    5. Lorenzo Cresti & Giovanni Dosi & Federico Riccio & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2023. "Italy and the Trap of GVC Downgrading: Labour Dependence in the European Geography of Production," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 9(3), pages 869-906, November.
    6. Amir Maghssudipour & Marco Bellandi & Annalisa Caloffi, 2023. "The role of language in international trade and the “made in Italy”," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 50(3), pages 677-702, September.
    7. Cristian Barra & Nazzareno Ruggiero, 2023. "Quality of Government and Types of Innovation—Empirical Evidence for Italian Manufacturing Firms," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 14(2), pages 1749-1789, June.
    8. Brancati, Emanuele & Brancati, Raffaele & Guarascio, Dario & Zanfei, Antonello, 2020. "In Times of Trouble: Innovative Drivers of External Competitiveness for Small Businesses during the Great Recession," GLO Discussion Paper Series 639, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    9. Miroshnychenko, Ivan & Strobl, Andreas & Matzler, Kurt & De Massis, Alfredo, 2021. "Absorptive capacity, strategic flexibility, and business model innovation: Empirical evidence from Italian SMEs," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 670-682.
    10. Croce, M.M. & Nguyen, Thien T. & Raymond, S. & Schmid, L., 2019. "Government debt and the returns to innovation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(3), pages 205-225.
    11. Nikolay Hristov & Markus Roth, 2019. "Uncertainty Shocks and Financial Crisis Indicators," CESifo Working Paper Series 7839, CESifo.
    12. Agathe Gilain & Pascal Le Masson & Benoit Weil, 2018. "Managing Learning Curves In The Unknown: From ‘Learning By Doing’ To ‘Learning By Designing’," Post-Print hal-01900961, HAL.
    13. Deshuai Hou & Luhan Shi & Hong He & Jian Xiong, 2023. "Research on the Deviation of Corporate Green Behaviour under Economic Policy Uncertainty Based on the Perspective of Green Technology Innovation in Chinese Listed Companies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-27, May.
    14. Manfred M. Fischer & Florian Huber & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2018. "The transmission of uncertainty shocks on income inequality: State-level evidence from the United States," Papers 1806.08278, arXiv.org.
    15. Wang, Shanchao & Alston, Julian M. & Pardey, Philip G., 2023. "R&D Lags in Economic Models," Staff Papers 330085, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    16. Idriss Fontaine, 2021. "Uncertainty and Labour Force Participation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(2), pages 437-471, April.
    17. Haddou, Samira, 2024. "Determinants of CDS in core and peripheral European countries: A comparative study during crisis and calm periods," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    18. Kučerová, Zuzana & Pakši, Daniel & Koňařík, Vojtěch, 2024. "Macroeconomic fundamentals and attention: What drives european consumers’ inflation expectations?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 48(1).
    19. Müller, Karsten, 2020. "German forecasters' narratives: How informative are German business cycle forecast reports?," Working Papers 23, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
    20. Salzmann, Leonard, 2020. "The Impact of Uncertainty and Financial Shocks in Recessions and Booms," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224588, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jftint:v:11:y:2019:i:9:p:196-:d:266242. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.