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Estimation of Tuberculosis Risk on a Commercial Airliner

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  • Gwangpyo Ko
  • Kimberly M. Thompson
  • Edward A. Nardell

Abstract

This article estimates the risk of tuberculosis (TB) transmission on a typical commercial airliner using a simple one box model (OBM) and a sequential box model (SBM). We used input data derived from an actual TB exposure on an airliner, and we assumed a hypothetical scenario that a highly infectious TB source case (i.e., 108 infectious quanta per hour) travels as a passenger on an 8.7‐hour flight. We estimate an average risk of TB transmission on the order of 1 chance in 1,000 for all passengers using the OBM. Applying the more realistic SBM, we show that the risk and incidence decrease sharply in a stepwise fashion in cabins downstream from the cabin containing the source case assuming some potential for airflow from more contaminated to less contaminated cabins. We further characterized spatial variability in the risk within the cabin by modeling a previously reported TB outbreak in an airplane to demonstrate that the TB cases occur most likely within close proximity of the source TB patient.

Suggested Citation

  • Gwangpyo Ko & Kimberly M. Thompson & Edward A. Nardell, 2004. "Estimation of Tuberculosis Risk on a Commercial Airliner," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(2), pages 379-388, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:24:y:2004:i:2:p:379-388
    DOI: 10.1111/j.0272-4332.2004.00439.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gwangpyo Ko & Harriet A. Burge & Edward A. Nardell & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2001. "Estimation of Tuberculosis Risk and Incidence under Upper Room Ultraviolet Germicidal Irradiation in a Waiting Room in a Hypothetical Scenario," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 21(4), pages 657-674, August.
    2. Mark Nicas & Alan Hubbard, 2002. "A Risk Analysis for Airborne Pathogens with Low Infectious Doses: Application to Respirator Selection Against Coccidioides immitis Spores," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(6), pages 1153-1163, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chung‐Min Liao & Chao‐Fang Chang & Huang‐Min Liang, 2005. "A Probabilistic Transmission Dynamic Model to Assess Indoor Airborne Infection Risks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(5), pages 1097-1107, October.
    2. Namilae, S. & Srinivasan, A. & Mubayi, A. & Scotch, M. & Pahle, R., 2017. "Self-propelled pedestrian dynamics model: Application to passenger movement and infection propagation in airplanes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 465(C), pages 248-260.
    3. Rachael M. Jones & Yoshifumi Masago & Timothy Bartrand & Charles N. Haas & Mark Nicas & Joan B. Rose, 2009. "Characterizing the Risk of Infection from Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Commercial Passenger Aircraft Using Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(3), pages 355-365, March.
    4. Martín López‐García & Marco‐Felipe King & Catherine J. Noakes, 2019. "A Multicompartment SIS Stochastic Model with Zonal Ventilation for the Spread of Nosocomial Infections: Detection, Outbreak Management, and Infection Control," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(8), pages 1825-1842, August.
    5. Szu‐Chieh Chen & Chung‐Min Liao & Sih‐Syuan Li & Shu‐Han You, 2011. "A Probabilistic Transmission Model to Assess Infection Risk from Mycobacterium Tuberculosis in Commercial Passenger Trains," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(6), pages 930-939, June.

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    2. Martín López‐García & Marco‐Felipe King & Catherine J. Noakes, 2019. "A Multicompartment SIS Stochastic Model with Zonal Ventilation for the Spread of Nosocomial Infections: Detection, Outbreak Management, and Infection Control," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(8), pages 1825-1842, August.
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