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Adapting to Climate: A Case Study on Riverine Flood Risks in the Netherlands

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  • Richard S. J. Tol
  • Nicolien Van Der Grijp
  • Alexander A. Olsthoorn
  • Peter E. Van Der Werff

Abstract

Climate change may well lead to an increased risk of river floods in the Netherlands. However, the impacts of changes in water management on river floods are larger, either enhancing or reducing flood risks. Therefore, the abilities of water‐management authorities to learn that climate and river flows are changing, and to recognize and act upon the implications, are of crucial importance. At the same time, water‐management authorities respond to other trends, such as the democratization of decision making, which alter their ability to react to climate change. These complex interactions are illustrated with changes in river flood risk management for the Rhine and the Meuse in the Netherlands over the last 50 years. A scenario study is used to seek insight into the question of whether current water‐management institutions and their likely successors are capable of dealing with plausible future flood risks. The scenarios show that new and major infrastructure is needed to keep flood risks at their current level. Such a structural solution to future flood risks is feasible, but requires considerable political will and institutional reform, both for planning and implementation. It is unlikely that reform will be fast enough or the will strong enough.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard S. J. Tol & Nicolien Van Der Grijp & Alexander A. Olsthoorn & Peter E. Van Der Werff, 2003. "Adapting to Climate: A Case Study on Riverine Flood Risks in the Netherlands," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(3), pages 575-583, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:23:y:2003:i:3:p:575-583
    DOI: 10.1111/1539-6924.00338
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. C Van Schoubroeck, 1997. "Legislation and Practice Concerning Natural Disasters and Insurance in a Number of European Countries*," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 22(2), pages 238-267, April.
    2. Tol, Richard S. J., 1998. "Climate change and insurance: a critical appraisal," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 257-262, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bell, Andrew & Zhu, Tingju & Xie, Hua & Ringler, Claudia, 2014. "Climate–water interactions—Challenges for improved representation in integrated assessment models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 510-521.
    2. Tol, Richard S.J., 2007. "Europe's long-term climate target: A critical evaluation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 424-432, January.
    3. Chappin, Emile J.L. & van der Lei, Telli, 2014. "Adaptation of interconnected infrastructures to climate change: A socio-technical systems perspective," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 10-17.
    4. Christoph Oberlack, 2017. "Diagnosing institutional barriers and opportunities for adaptation to climate change," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 22(5), pages 805-838, June.

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