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Assessment for Catastrophic Risks

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  • William B. Fairley

Abstract

Records of nonoccurrence of catastrophic accidents from technologically based industrial operations, such as nuclear power generation and liquefied natural gas (LNG) transportation are sometimes cited as evidence of the safety of such operations. The appropriateness and inappropriateness of different types of models of accident processes for these systems are discussed. Selectivity biases in defining both die numerator and denominator for accident rates are shown to be important to the size of the estimated rate and these are illustrated by examples. Inferential approaches to estimating a rate based on zero occurrences are briefly discussed. The conclusion reached is that a record of zero occurrences is of cold comfort in ruling out catastrophic events. Experience, unless it is interpreted by strong models and assumptions, helps little to establish very small probabilities of a catastrophe.

Suggested Citation

  • William B. Fairley, 1981. "Assessment for Catastrophic Risks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(3), pages 197-204, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:1:y:1981:i:3:p:197-204
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1981.tb01416.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Lester B. Lave & Joshua Menkes, 1985. "Managing Risk: A Joint U.S.‐German Perspective," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(1), pages 17-23, March.
    2. Mark R. Leach & Yacov Y. Haimes, 1987. "Multiobjective Risk‐Impact Analysis Method," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 7(2), pages 225-241, June.
    3. Hileman, Jacob D. & Angst, Mario & Scott, Tyler A. & Sundström, Emma, 2021. "Recycled text and risk communication in natural gas pipeline environmental impact assessments," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).

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