IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/riskan/v17y1997i5p609-616.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Simulation Model for Occupational Tuberculosis Transmission

Author

Listed:
  • Mark Nicas
  • Edmund Seto

Abstract

A simulation model of tuberculosis (TB) transmission among hospital employees is described. A hypothetical cohort of 1000 workers was divided into low‐, medium‐, and high‐risk groups. The number of TB patients admitted daily was treated as a Poisson random variable. A patient imparted a daily infection risk that was identical for all workers within a risk group but that varied between risk groups. In some scenarios, infected employees were assigned a daily risk of developing TB disease. If disease developed, the individual remained on the job for 3 calendar weeks and imparted a substantial infection risk to 25 close contacts. Simulations were run over 5‐year intervals. Cumulative infection incidence increased over time and with more TB patients admitted. Given a scenario in which there were 600, 300, and 100 susceptibles in the low‐, medium‐, and high risk groups, respectively, 50 TB patients admitted annually and accounting for disease among infected employees, at 5 years there were approximately 100 primary infections (due to infection by patients), 40 secondary infections (due to infection by diseased coworkers), five primary disease cases, and two secondary disease cases. The input parameter values and simulation outcomes were reasonably consistent with the sparse information reported in the literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Nicas & Edmund Seto, 1997. "A Simulation Model for Occupational Tuberculosis Transmission," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(5), pages 609-616, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:17:y:1997:i:5:p:609-616
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1997.tb00901.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1997.tb00901.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1997.tb00901.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark Nicas, 1996. "An Analytical Framework for Relating Dose, Risk, and Incidence: An Application to Occupational Tuberculosis Infection," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(4), pages 527-538, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ralf R. Küsel & Ian K. Craig & Anton C. Stoltz, 2019. "Modeling the Airborne Infection Risk of Tuberculosis for a Research Facility in eMalahleni, South Africa," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(3), pages 630-646, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Charles N. Haas, 2002. "On the Risk of Mortality to Primates Exposed to Anthrax Spores," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(2), pages 189-193, April.
    2. Ralf R. Küsel & Ian K. Craig & Anton C. Stoltz, 2019. "Modeling the Airborne Infection Risk of Tuberculosis for a Research Facility in eMalahleni, South Africa," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(3), pages 630-646, March.
    3. Szu‐Chieh Chen & Chung‐Min Liao & Sih‐Syuan Li & Shu‐Han You, 2011. "A Probabilistic Transmission Model to Assess Infection Risk from Mycobacterium Tuberculosis in Commercial Passenger Trains," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(6), pages 930-939, June.
    4. Rachael M. Jones & Yoshifumi Masago & Timothy Bartrand & Charles N. Haas & Mark Nicas & Joan B. Rose, 2009. "Characterizing the Risk of Infection from Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Commercial Passenger Aircraft Using Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(3), pages 355-365, March.
    5. Qi Zhen & Anxiao Zhang & Qiong Huang & Jing Li & Yiming Du & Qi Zhang, 2022. "Overview of the Role of Spatial Factors in Indoor SARS-CoV-2 Transmission: A Space-Based Framework for Assessing the Multi-Route Infection Risk," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(17), pages 1-38, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:17:y:1997:i:5:p:609-616. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1539-6924 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.