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A Unified Approach for Calculating Core Melt Frequency Caused by Internal and External Initiating Events

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  • Carolyn D. Heising
  • Virgilio Lopes de Oliveira

Abstract

A unified approach for calculating the core melt frequency of a specific reactor caused by both internal and external accident initiators is demonstrated. Two classes of internal initiators are examined: transients, of which turbine trip is the chosen example, and loss‐of‐coolant events of various sizes. The concepts of hazard and fragility analysis first proposed for seismic risk analysis are linked to the frequencies of internal initiating events, and to the plant response as a function of the event intensity. Uncertainties are propagated using discrete probability distribution (DPD) arithmetic. Advantages of this approach include mathematical and conceptual consistency, and an improved uncertainty analysis, which are important considerations if risk studies are to be utilized in decision‐making based on quantitative safety goals.

Suggested Citation

  • Carolyn D. Heising & Virgilio Lopes de Oliveira, 1995. "A Unified Approach for Calculating Core Melt Frequency Caused by Internal and External Initiating Events," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(1), pages 41-47, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:15:y:1995:i:1:p:41-47
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1995.tb00091.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stanley Kaplan, 1981. "On The Method of Discrete Probability Distributions in Risk and Reliability Calculations–Application to Seismic Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(3), pages 189-196, September.
    2. Stanley Kaplan & B. John Garrick, 1981. "On The Quantitative Definition of Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(1), pages 11-27, March.
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