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Understanding Uncertainty

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  • William D. Rowe

Abstract

There is more information we don't know than we do know for making most critical decisions involving risks. Our focus must be on understanding and effectively dealing with what we don't know. As a first step in achieving this focus, a classification of the types of uncertainties that must be addressed and the sources of these types of uncertainties is presented. The purpose is to provide a framework for discussion about addressing uncertainty, particularly in risk analyses. Both uncertainty and variability of information are addressed using four main classes: 1) Metrical uncertainty and variability in measurement, 2) Structural uncertainty due to complexity, including models and their validation, 3) Temporal uncertainty in future and past states 4) Translational uncertainty in explaining uncertain results. The factors that contribute uncertainty and error to these classes are identified, and their interrelationships indicated. Both subjective and objective aspects are addressed.

Suggested Citation

  • William D. Rowe, 1994. "Understanding Uncertainty," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(5), pages 743-750, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:14:y:1994:i:5:p:743-750
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1994.tb00284.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Gargiulo, Carmela & Battarra, Rosaria & Tremiterra, Maria Rosa, 2020. "Coastal areas and climate change: A decision support tool for implementing adaptation measures," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    2. Jon C. Helton & William L. Oberkampf & Jay D. Johnson, 2005. "Competing Failure Risk Analysis Using Evidence Theory," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(4), pages 973-995, August.
    3. Victor R. Vasquez & Wallace B. Whiting, 2005. "Accounting for Both Random Errors and Systematic Errors in Uncertainty Propagation Analysis of Computer Models Involving Experimental Measurements with Monte Carlo Methods," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(6), pages 1669-1681, December.
    4. Zhang, Yan & Han, Yu-Lan, 2019. "Paradoxical leader behavior in long-term corporate development: Antecedents and consequences," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 42-54.

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